[NLRS] 6 meters

[Ken Boston]

Hi all;


There has been a recent prediction for the upcoming cycle 24, which
forecasts a big peak, at a later time than earlier predictions have
postulated.

Go to the ARRL homepage, and check the story there, and click on the
links within the story.  I first got wind of this from a Drudge report
article a few days ago.  I then found the story on the ARRL page.  Dave,
KJ9I sent me a post from the topband reflector, which I have pasted
below.

 
6 meter DXers, viva la cycle 24, bring it on!!

 
Ken  W9GA



         This forecast is at odds with one published last spring which
predicted a lower than normal cycle for the next one.  Time will tell!

                                 73,  Bill  W4ZV

"New Model Predicts Timing and Intensity of Solar Storms

Sunspots have long been known to appear and disappear from the sun's
surface. The powerful magnetic fields that block light from escaping the
sun's interior burst into being on the surface and slowly fade as they
migrate toward the poles. A new model may help predict the intensity and
timing of such solar outbursts as well as reveal the underlying
mechanism of the sunspot cycle.

Mausumi Dikpati and her colleagues at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., used new observations of the
sun's interior and new computer simulations to model the flow of plasma,
or electrically charged gas, that carry the sunspots like a conveyor
belt until they become powerful enough to burst free and erupt on the
sun's surface. As the spots weaken, the belt then slowly carries them
toward the poles and, ultimately, back into the sun's core where they
become the foundation of the next sunspot cycle. "The remnants from the
past three cycles combine to produce a certain seed for the present
cycle," Dikpati explains. "We now know that it takes two cycles to fill
half the belt with magnetic field and another two cycles to fill the
other half. Because of this, the next solar cycle depends on
characteristics from as far back as 40 years previously--the sun has a
magnetic memory."

This model proved more than 98 percent effective in predicting the
relative strength and duration of the past eight solar storm cycles,
which last for roughly 11 years, according to the team's report in the
current issue of Geophysical Research Letters. And it calls for the next
cycle--so-called cycle 24--to be 30 to 50 percent stronger than the
present one. Solar outbursts have effects on everything from satellites
to the electrical grid here on Earth and predicting such storms is a
continuing effort for NASA, NOAA and other government and scientific
groups.

The relatively new science of solar weather prediction remains
argumentative, however, not unlike terrestrial meteorology. Another
model predicted that cycle 24 would be weaker than recent cycles, but
the present model's accuracy in predicting past events and scientists'
deeper understanding of the underlying solar physics may give it an
edge, according to David Hathaway, a solar astronomer at NASA's Marshall
Space Flight Center. But even he disagrees with some of the model's
findings. It predicts that the next cycle will be delayed until late
2007 or early 2008. "We have found that large cycles usually start
early," he says. "We think the next cycle will start late this year or
early next year. We're just anxiously awaiting the appearance of those
first spots." --David Biello"