[NLRS] FYI Aurora alert from another list

Brad Johannes bradjrc at hotmail.com
Wed Dec 13 14:04:23 EST 2006


>VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER
>VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER
>
>HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
>MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER
>
>PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)
>
>POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH
>
>POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
>                                     MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS
>
>ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
>
>EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
>
>OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO
>VERY GOOD
>
>AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
>FROM...
>    (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
>
>    NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO
>SOUTHERN
>    MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.
>
>ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>    (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
>
>    FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL
>RUSSIA.
>
>    NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY
>    MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
>
>SYNOPSIS...
>
>      A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar
>Region 930
>was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to
>produce
>periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm
>activity
>on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense
>phase
>of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact,
>which is
>currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14
>December).
>The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises
>sometime after
>local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur
>prior to
>and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon.
>
>      This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on
>15 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For
>updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html.
>For
>real-time plots of current activity, visit:
>http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
>
>            PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
>                  http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
>
>
>




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