[NLRS] Solar shock wave info

[Scott Blixt]

Begin forwarded message:
>
>
> Guys,
>
> Just got this on the Minnesota Wireless Association reflector....  
> Could
> be good condix for MW and SW  DXing tonight... take advantage!
>
> From: na5n at zianet.com
>
> Subject: [QRP-L] X1 SOLAR FLARE 15JAN
>
> To: qrp-l at mailman.qth.net
>
> Message-ID: <20050115194900.97890.qmail at halo.zianet.com>
>
> Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="utf-8"
>
>
>
> Gang,
>
> My "homepage" is the NOAA site, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today, and I 
> almost
> fell off my chair a few moments ago when I noticed the *X1* flare 
> earlier
> today.  This is VERY unusual for this late in the solar cycle, and you 
> can
> bet it will effect the HF bands over the next few days. Some good -- 
> some
> bad.
>
>
>
> Today, 15 JAN 2005 (so far)
>
> 0022 UTC X1 flare from region 0720
>
> 0426 UTC M8 flare from region 0720
>
> 0554 UTC M8 flare from region 0720
>
> 1408 UTC M3 flare from region 0718
>
>
>
> Here's what's important: both solar regions 0718 and 0720 are currently
> right on the central meridian, the smack center of the sun.  These 
> flares
> are all GEOEFFECTIVE, meaning the electrons and protons blasted out 
> from the
> flares will head directly at Earth.  Some of the energetic electrons 
> and
> protons are hitting the Earth right now - those that are traveling 
> near the
> speed of light.  The shock waves from these flares, traveling far less 
> than
> the speed of light and riding along with the solar wind, will arrive 
> later,
> probably late sunday and monday. NOAA has not yet posted the estimated 
> shock
> velocity, which could be anywhere from 800 to 1500 km/sec.  Usually, a
> shockwave around 1000 km/sec or more will trigger MAJOR to SEVERE
> geomagnetic storms.  Since the flares are in the center of the center, 
> we
> will get more or less a direct hit, not a glancing blow.  We will no 
> escape
> the effects of these flares!
>
>
>
> THE GOOD NEWS
>
> These flares have increased the solar flux to 130. The background 
> X-ray of
> the sun right now remains high, which could elevate the solar flux 
> higher
> over the next day or two.  This means the Earth is now receiving 
> higher than
> normal ionizing radiation.  Our E and F layers are getting highly 
> ionized,
> making them very reflective and raising the MUF.  Right now, the MUF is
> around 20 MHz.  This means 15M should be open.  I can't wait to get 
> home and
> see for myself.  (I'm at work for a couple more hours - rats!).  It 
> also
> means 20M will remain open longer for the next couple of days following
> sundown and supporting long skip hops.
>
>
>
> Between NOW and when the shockwave of the X1 hits us is a great time 
> to play
> around the bands, the higher bands, and work some DX and paths that 
> have not
> been available for awhile.  If it sounds cruddy now, try again a bit 
> later.
> Take advantage of the highly ionized E/F layers and the elevated MUF 
> while
> it lasts.
>
>
>
> THE BAD NEWS
>
> This ionizing radiation is also penetrating our atmosphere to where it 
> is
> also ionizing our D-layer.  We know that in order for our signals to 
> reach
> the E/F layers to skip back to earth, our signals must also pass 
> through the
> D-layer - TWICE.  So, enhanced ionization of the D-layer means HIGHER 
> than
> normal daytime absorption to our signals.
>
> Here's what the D-layer absorption currently looks like:
>
> 10MHz  3dB (that's half your power!)
>
> 5MHz  7dB
>
> 3MHz 18dB
>
>
>
> That means 30M, 40M and 80M are nearly worthless right now with very 
> high
> absorption to your QRP signals.  The good news is this will come to an 
> end
> as soon as the sunsets in your locale, when the D-region virtually 
> ceases to
> exist anyway.
>
>
>
> The solar flares are also proton events, meaning they are hurling 
> protons at
> us.  As they hit the earths magnetic field, they tend to follow the 
> field
> lines and dump into the polar regions.  This means our friends in 
> northern
> latitudes are likely in a near HF blackout right now, called a Polar 
> Cap
> Absorption event, or PCA.  Sorry.  Of course, this also fuels aurora.
>
>
>
> THE SHOCKWAVE
>
> When the shockwave of this X1 hits us mid-day sunday (estimated) or 
> beyond,
> it will compress and distort our magnetic field, the magnetic "bubble" 
> the
> Earth resides in, triggering a major geomagnetic storm.
>
> Then a few hours later, the shock wave of the M8 hits us, then a few 
> hours
> later - the other M8 shockwave will hit us.  This will keep our 
> geomagnetic
> field in storm conditions for a very prolonged period of time, 
> probably into
> tuesday.  It will also cause enhanced aurora, so if you live in the 
> northern
> U.S. states, you *could* be treated to the northern lights, depending 
> upon
> the time of the day it hits us.  For maximum effect in the U.S., the
> shockwave needs to hit around local midnight to blow all those 
> energetic
> electrons over the magnetic field lines above your head.  So keep an 
> eye on
> when the shockwave hits if you are interested in the aurora.  There's 
> always
> a chance, with the proper geometry and timing, the aurora could extend 
> well
> into the middle latitudes.  Too early to tell, and always hard to 
> predict.
>
> Just a heads up.
>
>
>
> SUMMARY.
>
> The enhanced solar radiation has raised the MUF and made the E/F 
> layers very
> reflective for some interesting 20M and 15M DX work right now during
> daylight hours.  This same radiation is also causing high absorption 
> to the
> D-layers, meaning during the DAYLIGHT hours, 10MHZ and above will be
> improved over the normal right now, while 10 MHz and below will have 
> periods
> of almost blackout conditions.
>
>
>
> DURING THE NIGHT, the ionizing radiation stops, returning the D, E and 
> F
> layers to normal, for fairly good conditions on 40M and below.  The 
> higher
> solar flux means 20M will stay open longer than usual.
>
>
>
> When the shockwave hits, it will virtually wipeout 10MHz and below,
> regardless of the time of day.  The effects lessen as you go up in
> frequency, such that during the day, inspite of the geomagnetic storm, 
> 20M
> and 15M may still be open and useful, although a little extra noise.
>
>
>
> This is an unusual situation for this late in the solar cycle.  
> Hopefully
> the above information will allow you to take advantage of it where you 
> can,
> and avoid it where you must (or, at least be aware why the bands are 
> lousy).
> I'll try to post if anything else significant occurs or develops over 
> the
> weekend.
>




Scott Blixt
A Minnesota MadMan
sblixt at myclearwave.net