[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 9/1/2006 5:16:03 AM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

WWUS81 KPHI 010915
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
515 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-012100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
515 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH EASTERN 
VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL MARYLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THROUGH 
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH, 
IT WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS WEATHER 
CONDITIONS.  THIS IS THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE 
FOR THE RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THE REGION EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN 
THE WEEK.  THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE 
FLOODING, BUT GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
LIKELY.   

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...

BASIN-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL FORECASTS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE 
ACROSS DELAWARE, THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, 
AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MORE 
REMOVED FROM THE STORM TRACK, RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 
INCH RANGE.  AS WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 
ARE COMMON.  ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE 
POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD START MOVING INTO DELAWARE AND 
MARYLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WHEN THE 
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF 
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

WIND EFFECTS...

WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS 
COMPARED TO THE COAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS.  HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS MOST OF 
THE INTERIOR SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 35 MPH.  HOWEVER, RECENT 
HEAVY RAINS AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE PROLONGED 
DURATION OF THE WINDS WILL STILL KNOCK OVER SOME SHALLOW ROOTED 
TREES.  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES, AS WELL AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 
PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR.  HIGHEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 
50 MPH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF NEW 
JERSEY AND DELAWARE.  STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE FELT ON THE EASTERN 
SHORE OF MARYLAND ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UP THE DELAWARE 
RIVER.  GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. LAND-BASED WIND 
ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN POSTED. 

THUNDERSTORM THREAT...

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS CONFINED TO SECTIONS OF 
DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

TIDAL EFFECTS...

THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAY 
RESULT IN SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY 
AND DELAWARE, ALONG THE SHORES OF RARITAN BAY AND DELAWARE BAY, AND 
ON THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.

ALSO, WITH THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM 
ERNESTO FORECAST TO MOVE UP THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY AND 
TONIGHT, THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON THE UPPER EASTERN 
SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.  

SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...

WAVES JUST OFF THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ARE EXPECTED TO 
RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING, BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET FOR 
TONIGHT.  THE ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A POUNDING SURF FOR 
TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP 
CURRENTS.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE 
AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$

KRUZDLO/IOVINO



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