[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 11/7/2006 4:32:10 AM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

WWUS81 KPHI 070931
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
431 AM EST TUE NOV 7 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012>027-PAZ067>071-
072145-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...
FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
431 AM EST TUE NOV 7 2006

...HEAVY RAIN ON THE WAY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE DELAWARE 
AND NEW JERSEY SHORE AREAS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND WE EXPECT
TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE REGION 
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, A LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
STATES AND MOVE TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE. THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO WILL 
INCREASE THE WIND GRADIENT IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND BRING 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN LATER TAP 
THE RICH MOISTURE OF THE GULF STREAM. 

THE RESULT WILL BE A DRENCHING RAIN FOR SOME FOLKS, PRIMARILY EAST
OF THE I95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTS. THE LOW TRACKS PARALLEL TO THE
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
COMING TO AN END OVER DELAWARE WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NORTHERN
COASTAL NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY WILL BE
AROUND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. TO THE WEST OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AROUND AN INCH, BUT TO THE EAST TO THE DELAWARE AND NEW
JERSEY COASTS, AS MUCH AS TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE WINDS
BUFFETING THE BEACH.

THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE MAJOR RIVERS AND 
ALSO THOSE FLASHY STREAMS THAT FLOOD FIRST. FOR THOSE WHO ARE 
SUBJECT TO FLOODING FROM SIMILAR EVENTS, PLEASE MONITOR THE 
FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE EVENT A WATCH OR WARNING BECOMES 
NECESSARY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.   

THE MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS COULD CAUSE A TIDAL RISE ALONG 
THE DELAWARE BAY AND RIVER. SINCE WE ARE COMING OFF A FULL MOON ON 
NOVEMBER 5TH, THE TIDE WILL RUN ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS 
COUPLED WITH HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME MINOR DRAINAGE 
PROBLEMS ON THE TRIBUTARIES THAT EMPTY INTO THE BAYS AND RIVER.

THE TIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE 
THE HIGH TIDE AT PHILADELPHIA BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM AND PM ON 
WEDNESDAY, AND AT REEDY POINT BETWEEN 12 TO 1 AM AND PM ON 
WEDNESDAY. 
 

$$

EBERWINE