[MTHOLLYSVRWX] WSWPHI

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WWUS41 KPHI 010945
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
445 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006

NJZ012>015-PAZ067>069-012200-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.A.0004.060302T0500Z-060303T0300Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
445 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE, DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, 
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL 
NEW JERSEY LATE TONIGHT.  THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING AND INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  IT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR 
CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.  PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH 
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES, WITH PERHAPS 4 TO 8 
INCHES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.  HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN 
THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD ALTER THE SNOW TOTALS.  ALSO, THERE IS 
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE AT SOME LOCATIONS.  AS A 
RESULT, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA 
COUNTIES OF NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND 
BUCKS, AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, 
MIDDLESEX, MERCER AND MONMOUTH.  THE WATCH COVERS THE PERIOD FROM 
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH, BE 
SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY.

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-012200-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.A.0004.060302T0500Z-060303T0300Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA
445 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE, DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, 
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE UPPER DELMARVA, IN PHILADELPHIA AND 
IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE TONIGHT.  THE SNOW SHOULD 
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO 
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, AND PERHAPS TO RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS BY 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SNOWFALL 
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.  HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN 
THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD ALTER THE SNOW TOTALS.  ALSO, THERE IS 
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE IN SOME AREAS.  AS A 
RESULT, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA 
COUNTIES OF DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA, AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY 
COUNTIES OF OCEAN, BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER AND SALEM.  THE 
WATCH ALSO INCLUDES NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND CECIL COUNTY 
IN MARYLAND AND IT COVERS THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH, BE 
SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY.

$$

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-012200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0004.060302T0500Z-060303T0300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
445 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE, DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, 
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE POCONO REGION AND IN NORTHERN NEW 
JERSEY LATE TONIGHT.  THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING AND INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS 
THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES.  HOWEVER, A 
SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW 
TOTALS.  AS A RESULT, A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE, AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY 
COUNTIES OF SUSSEX, WARREN AND MORRIS.  THE WATCH COVERS THE PERIOD 
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH, BE 
SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY.

$$

NJZ009-010-PAZ060>062-012200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0004.060302T0500Z-060303T0300Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
445 AM EST WED MAR 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE, DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, 
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PASS OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL 
NEW JERSEY LATE TONIGHT.  THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING AND INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  IT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR 
CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.  PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH 
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES, WITH PERHAPS 4 TO 8 
INCHES IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.  HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN 
THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD ALTER THE SNOW TOTALS.  ALSO, THERE IS 
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF ICE AT SOME LOCATIONS.  AS A 
RESULT, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA 
COUNTIES OF NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND 
BUCKS, AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, 
MIDDLESEX, MERCER AND MONMOUTH.  THE WATCH COVERS THE PERIOD FROM 
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH, BE 
SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY.

$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2005 THROUGH 
EARLY 2006.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS LATE TONIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

=====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION      2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
=====================================================================

MPO          70     50     25     10      5     <5     <5 
ABE          70     50     25     10      5     <5     <5 
PHL          50     20      5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
ACY          <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
GED          <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

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IOVINO



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