[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Tropical Weather Discussion : AT@ 6/18/2006 7:26:12 PM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

AXNT20 KNHC 182325
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. 
THERE IS BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE. DESPITE THE FAIR SIGNATURE...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION.  

A MORE IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED AHEAD ALONG 54W 
SOUTH OF 16N BASED UPON TURNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 
INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING 
RATHER QUICKLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE MAINLY BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM. A BURST OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD 
OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 54W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 19N. 
THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED. HOWEVER...THIS 
FEATURE IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N28W 5N34W 9N48W 7N60W. 
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 54W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-36W. ISOLATED/SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 
18W N OF 2N.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DIPS INTO THE NW GULF. A 
WEAK ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN 
SE TEXAS PRODUCING BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ACROSS LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA HAS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 
EXTREME SE GULF AND FLORIDA WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE 
W ATLANTIC IS BACKING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS OVER SW FLORIDA WHERE SEA-BREEZE 
CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF NEAR 3-5 
INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. AT THE SURFACE...DISTANT HIGH PRES IN THE 
W ATLANTIC CONTROLS THE PATTERN PRODUCING LIGHT E TO SE WINDS 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOMORROW...A 
WEAK SFC HIGH MAY DEVELOP IN THE E GULF ENHANCING FAIR WEATHER. 
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NW 
GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY IN THE W ATLANTIC BUT 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA TO 
NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. 
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER 
CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE COASTAL WATERS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE 
UPPER TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND 
SOUTH AMERICA. A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTED FROM S AMERICA AND 
SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED BELOW 
THE UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG 67W AND MAY BE ENHANCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.  A 
MORE IMPRESSIVE FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE 
AREA MAY SPREAD SOME OF ITS MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS 
TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS NEAR 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.      

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 
NEAR JAMAICA.  AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO 
26N73W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND SOME SFC LIFT IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 62W-72W. AN UPPER HIGH IS 
CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N50W. SWLY FLOW ON THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS LIE BETWEEN 52W-59W FROM 20N-28N. FARTHER TO THE 
NORTHEAST...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH 
ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN 
23W-44W. IN THE EAST ATLC...A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN 
DUST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A DOMINATING 1035 MB 
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH OF DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 40N42W WITH A SECONDARY HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N69W 
CONTROLS THE SFC PATTERN.  

$$
CANGIALOSI


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