[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Tropical Weather Discussion : AT@ 6/18/2006 6:47:26 AM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

AXNT20 KNHC 181046
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID 
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD 
LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-52W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE 
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CROSSES THE E CARIBBEAN. 
WAVE IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. NO 
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 3N30W 12N47W 6N50W 
7N60W.CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ARE FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-47W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 
47W-57W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS 
AND THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 92W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT 
IS IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE E GULF N OF 22N E OF 86W. THIS 
LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED 
NEAR 22N91W WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GULF REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 85W 
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER HIGHS...THE ONE OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N 
OF 16N FROM 70W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AT THE BASE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM 
HISPANIOLA THROUGH CUBA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 
NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N W OF 80W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS THE W ATLC 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM W OF 
60W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W SW TO 
26N71W. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AT 
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 28N FROM 63W-83W INCLUDING 
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN 
THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N35W 
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 21N35W. AT THE 
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP 
TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 15N48W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST 
ALONG 16N/17N E OF 30W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER 
HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GENERATING AN AREA OF OVERCAST 
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
18N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER THIN LAYER OF 
AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC S OF 20N E OF 40W THUS 
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
21W. 

$$
WALLACE



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