[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 7/22/2006 4:00:32 AM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

WWUS81 KPHI 220759
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-222100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
359 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAYBE SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES...
 
A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MORE 
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
DEVELOPS ON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE DAY CONTINUES A STRONG 
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL NOT 
ONLY HELP THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES BUT INCREASE THE SHEAR OR CHANGE OF 
WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN OUR AIR MASS. THIS SHEAR COULD LEAD TO 
SUPERCELL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. 

AT THIS TIME MOST OF OUR REGION IS VULNERABLE TO POSSIBLE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS WOULD 
FAVOR THE THREAT REACHING ITS PEAK DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE 
AFTERNOON AND FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT 
MIGHT HAVE A LOWER RISK WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS SOUTH 
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REDUCE THE INSTABILITY. 

THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY OVER OUR AREA AND PLACES TO THE SOUTH 
WILL HAVE A STRONG BEARING ON HOW UNSTABLE OUR AIR MASS BECOMES AND 
HOW MUCH EASIER IT WOULD BECOME FOR SUPERCELL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS TO 
DEVELOP. WE HOPE THAT THE PRESENT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUN. THIS IS 
ONE REASON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A 
SLIGHT AND NOT A MODERATE OR HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND 
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

PLEASE LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS THE DAY CONTINUES. WE WILL ALSO 
ISSUE A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT LISTING SOME TORNADO SAFETY 
RULES. 

THIS IS ONE OF THE RARE DAYS IN OUR AREA THAT YOU SHOULD LET THE 
WEATHER DICTATE YOUR ACTIONS AND NOT THE OPPOSITE. IF YOU HAVE PLANS 
THAT TAKE YOU OUTDOORS...PLEASE SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A PERMANENT 
BUILDING AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER OR IF A WARNING IS 
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. MARINERS SHOULD GIVE THEMSELVES MORE THAN
AMPLE TIME TO REACH SAFE HARBOR. 


$$

GIGI/O'HARA


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