[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 8/31/2006 4:11:11 PM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

WWUS81 KPHI 312010
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-011030-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
410 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH VIRGINIA AND 
WESTERN MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. 
THIS WILL CAUSE SOME POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH 
THE MAIN THREAT BEING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE 
FLOODING.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...

BASIN-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH 
RANGE ACROSS DELAWARE, THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, SOUTHERN NEW 
JERSEY, AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND 
MORE REMOVED FROM THE STORM TRACK, RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.  AS WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS, LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD 
START MOVING INTO DELAWARE AND MARYLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 
REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MOST WIDESPREAD 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO 
NORTH ON SATURDAY.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

WIND EFFECTS...

WIND EFFECTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN INLAND LOCATIONS. 
HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 30 MPH.  HOWEVER,
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE 
PROLONGED DURATION OF THE WINDS WILL KNOCK OVER SOME SHALLOW ROOTED 
AND OR LEANING TREES.  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES, AS WELL AS ISOLATED 
INSTANCES OF PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR.  ALONG THE COAST, 
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE RAISED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  HIGHEST WIND 
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL DELAWARE AND 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...

AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS CONFINED TO SECTIONS 
OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ON FRIDAY.

TIDAL EFFECTS...

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL COMBINE WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA TO BRING A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO 
OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE 
INCREASING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE 
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS, ON
DELAWARE BAY, AND ON THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE, TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, AND, THUS, TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
FORTUNATELY, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING LOW BECAUSE OF THE
FACT THAT WE ARE BETWEEN THE NEW MOON AND THE FULL MOON.

IN ADDITION, THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY
ROUGH SURF WITH WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 10 FT LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO SATURDAY. A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE 
THREATENING CONDITIONS EXIST FOR ALL PEOPLE ENTERING THE SURF.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TO YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR 
FURTHER UPDATES AND HEED ANY WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED 
FOR YOUR AREA.

$$

RPW

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