[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 8/31/2006 5:31:19 AM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

WWUS81 KPHI 310930
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
530 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-312100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
530 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH VIRGINIA AND 
WESTERN MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. 
THIS WILL CAUSE SOME POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH 
THE MAIN THREAT BEING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE 
FLOODING.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...

BASIN-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH 
RANGE ACROSS DELAWARE, THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, SOUTHERN NEW 
JERSEY, AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND 
MORE REMOVED FROM THE STROM TRACK, RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 2 
TO 4 INCH RANGE.  AS WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS, LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD 
START MOVING INTO DELAWARE AND MARYLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 
REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE MOST WIDESPREAD 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO 
NORTH ON SATURDAY.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE 
FORECAST AREA.

WIND EFFECTS...

WIND EFFECTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN INLAND LOCATIONS. 
HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 30 MPH.  HOWEVER, RECENT 
HEAVY RAINS AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE PROLONGED 
DURATION OF THE WINDS WILL KNOCK OVER SOME SHALLOW ROOTED AND OR 
LEANING TREES.  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AS WELL ISOLATED INSTANCES 
OF PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR.  ALONG THE COAST, HIGHEST 
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL DELAWARE AND 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...

AT THE MOMENT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS CONFINED TO SECTIONS 
OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ON FRIDAY.

TIDAL EFFECTS...

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AND 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN A STRONG ONSHORE 
FLOW BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT, 
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

BEING THAT WE ARE BETWEEN THE NEW MOON AND THE FULL MOON, 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING LOW.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY 
EXPECTED INCREASE IN TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN ONLY SPOTTY 
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON FRIDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND 
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TO YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR 
FURTHER UPDATES AND HEED ANY WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED 
FOR YOUR AREA.

$$

KRUZDLO/IOVINO



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