[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 8/30/2006 9:49:10 PM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

WWUS81 KPHI 310148
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-311015-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
948 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...REMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...

OUR BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR BASIN-WIDE AVERAGES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION. AS WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS JUNCTURE IT
IS NOT POSSIBLE TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD START MOVING INTO DELAWARE AND MARYLAND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

WIND EFFECTS...

WIND EFFECTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN INLAND LOCATIONS. 
HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 30 MPH. HOWEVER...RECENT
HEAVY RAINS AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE PROLONGED
DURATION OF THE WINDS WILL KNOCK OVER SOME SHALLOW ROOTED AND OR
LEANING TREES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AS WELL ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR. ALONG THE COAST HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...

AT THE MOMENT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS CONFINED TO SECTIONS
OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES ON FRIDAY.

TIDAL EFFECTS...

TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MINOR. WE WILL BENEFIT FROM
THIS EVENT OCCURRING DURING THE NEAP TIDE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE. IN
ADDITION ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE THE STRONGEST ON-SHORE WINDS SHOULD
BE OCCURRING DURING THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE A TWO CYCLE EVENT AND AS SUCH SOME OF THE
BACK BAYS AND INLETS MIGHT NOT DRAIN COMPLETELY DURING THE TIDAL
CYCLES. THIS WOULD CAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT. IN DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS THE ON SHORE
OR UP-BAY FLOW SHOULD ALSO CAUSE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOU LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES AND HEED ANY WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED FOR
YOUR AREA.


$$

TFG


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