[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 1/29/2005 4:45:25 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS41 KPHI 290937
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2005

DEZ003-MDZ019-020-292200-
CAROLINE MD-INLAND SUSSEX DE-TALBOT MD-
434 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE 
AND TALBOT AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MARYLAND...
...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NEW ORLEANS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE NORTHEAST AND REFORM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY 
MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST 
ON SUNDAY. AS IT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EAST...ITS HEAVY PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND. THIS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. WHILE IT IS NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST...THERE
EXISTS A CHANCE THAT THE SNOW MIGHT MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A WHILE
ON SUNDAY.
 
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT...THE 
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY DAY AS 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.

PLEASE LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES OR 
WARNINGS. A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK OR INTENSIFICATION WILL 
HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL ACCUMULATE. THE 
INITIAL ESTIMATES ARE FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES. THESE SHOULD BE TREATED AS 
SUCH AS A LARGE UPWARD OR DOWNWARD REVISION IS NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION WITH THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING CONDITIONS 
MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH 
EARLY 2005. THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION 
OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS POTENTIAL 
STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

===================================================================

            PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE
           FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

===================================================================
STATION      2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN    24IN
===================================================================

MPO          25     10     <5     <5    <5     <5      <5 
ABE          25     10     <5     <5    <5     <5      <5 
PHL          25     10     <5     <5    <5     <5      <5 
ACY          50     15      5     <5    <5     <5      <5 
GED          70     50     25     10     5     <5      <5 
=================================================================== 
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)


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