[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 1/20/2005 3:21:06 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS41 KPHI 202010
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 PM EST THU JAN 20 2005

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-211200-
BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CARBON PA-CHESTER PA-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
HUNTERDON NJ-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONROE PA-
MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-SOMERSET NJ-SUSSEX NJ-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...NEW BRUNSWICK...
PERTH AMBOY...READING AND TRENTON
308 PM EST THU JAN 20 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING 
COUNTIES.

IN PENNSYLVANIA, CARBON, MONROE, NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, 
CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS.

IN NEW JERSEY, SUSSEX, WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, MERCER, 
MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY ON 
SATURDAY MORNING.  SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS 
AND FLURRIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 
OF SIX INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, THE LEHIGH 
VALLEY, BERKS COUNTY AND PHILADELPHIA'S NORTHWESTERN SUBURBAN 
COUNTIES.  THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIX INCHES OR MORE IN 
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.  AS A RESULT, THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND 
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS THAN IDEAL THIS WEEKEND.  IF YOU 
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FORECASTS AND 
RELATED STATEMENTS DURING THE COMING DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA 
THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST, REACHING 
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
AND A SECONDARY LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY 
AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY.

$$

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ016>022-026-027-PAZ070-071-211200-
ATLANTIC NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT MD-KENT DE-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...DOVER...NEWARK...PHILADELPHIA...
VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
308 PM EST THU JAN 20 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING 
COUNTIES.

IN PENNSYLVANIA, PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE COUNTY.

IN NEW JERSEY, OCEAN, BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, SALEM, 
CUMBERLAND AND INLAND ATLANTIC COUNTY.

IN DELAWARE, NEW CASTLE AND KENT.

IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, CECIL, KENT AND QUEEN ANNE'S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EASTERN 
MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON SATURDAY MORNING.  SNOW WILL 
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING AND 
IT MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN AT TIMES IN PARTS OF EASTERN 
MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.  THE PRECIPITATION 
SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY MORNING.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF FOUR INCHES OR MORE ARE 
POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN MUCH OF 
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.  THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOUR INCHES OR 
MORE IN  NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE. 
AS A RESULT, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM 
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS THAN IDEAL THIS WEEKEND.  IF YOU 
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FORECASTS AND 
RELATED STATEMENTS DURING THE COMING DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA 
THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST, REACHING 
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
AND A SECONDARY LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY 
AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY.

$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH 
EARLY 2005.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS FROM SATURDAY 
MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

====================================================================

            PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
           THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION       2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN 
====================================================================

MPO           90     80     65     30     15      5     <5
ABE           90     80     65     30     15      5     <5
PHL           90     80     65     30     15      5     <5
ACY           90     80     65     30     15      5     <5
GED           60     30     15      5     <5     <5     <5
====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

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