[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 1/7/2005 3:58:09 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS41 KPHI 070845
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2005

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-071700-
CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-MORRIS NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-SUSSEX NJ-
WARREN NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN AND BETHLEHEM
334 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...
...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE 
WITH THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX 
COUNTY NEW JERSEY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES 
TODAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA. THIS 
WILL HELP MELT THE ICE OFF OF STRUCTURES AND WITH RESTORATION 
EFFORTS.

UNFORTUNATELY A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH EASE. MEANWHILE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO DISPLACE THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE NEAR THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHICH ARE SNOW
COVERED. 

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MIGHT START 
AS SOME SNOW IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY. BUT AS WARMER AIR 
CONTINUES TO SURGE IN ALOFT...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GROUND ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. 
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE FREEZING RAIN ONCE IT STARTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY 
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA IN NORTHWEST 
NEW JERSEY PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING 
RAIN. SOME SLEET MIGHT OCCUR AT THE START. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND HOW
MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PLUS THE
WARMTH THAT THE RAIN ITSELF BRINGS MIGHT RISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING BY DAYBREAK. 

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND 
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE LEHIGH 
VALLEY. CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE FOR ABOUT HALF OF THIS TO FALL AS ICE 
IN THE WATCH AREA. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER QUARTER INCH TO 
HALF INCH OF ICE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. IF THE HIGHER AMOUNT IS 
ACHIEVED...RENEWED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. UNTREATED WALKWAYS 
AND ROADS WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS.

THIS EVENT SHOULD END BY NOON ON SATURDAY AND THERE IS THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SUN COULD ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS 
WILL ASSIST WITH THE MELTING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG 
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
  
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION, IN THIS CASE ICE. BUT THERE IS 
UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH ICE VERSUS OTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE 
POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND ICE VERSUS PLAIN RAIN IN 
THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. THE EVENT SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN AS EVERY 
COMPUTER MODEL IS BRINGING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. 

PLEASE LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES LATER 
TODAY. IT WOULD BE WISE IF CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TODAY TO MAKE 
THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS. DO NOT DO ANY UNNECESSARY DRIVING ONCE 
THIS EVENT BEGINS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH 
EARLY 2005.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS LATE TONIGHT.

=====================================================================

            PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 
          THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION       2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
====================================================================

MPO           10     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5
ABE           <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5
PHL           <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5
ACY           <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5
GED           <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5       
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

  
TFG
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