[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 1/4/2005 5:09:42 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS41 KPHI 040956
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
456 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2005

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-042200-
CARBON PA-MONROE PA-SUSSEX NJ-
456 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THE WATCH INCLUDES THE 
COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE IN PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN 
NEW JERSEY.

AN AREA OF RAIN FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS 
AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AT FIRST, TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.  HOWEVER, BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN 
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW.

COLD AIR SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY 
AND THE MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE 
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND IT MAY 
INCREASE THE SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES.

MILD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE ON 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY 
MORNING.  HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS 
THE RAIN FALLS AND A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ON 
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE POCONOS OR IN SUSSEX COUNTY, NEW JERSEY PAY 
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO WEATHER FORECASTS AND OTHER RELATED INFORMATION 
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

$$

IOVINO

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH 
EARLY 2005.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS WEDNESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

=====================================================================

            PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 
          THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION       2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
====================================================================

MPO           70     50     25     10      5     <5     <5 
ABE           50     15      5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
PHL           25     10     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
ACY           10     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
GED           <5     <5     <5   <5     <5     <5     <5 
 
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

WWWW