[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 2/23/2005 4:09:52 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS41 KPHI 230844
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 AM EST WED FEB 23 2005

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-232100-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-GLOUCESTER NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-TALBOT MD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC CITY...CAMDEN...DOVER...NEWARK...
PHILADELPHIA...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
341 AM EST WED FEB 23 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...ALL OF 
DELAWARE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST 
PENNSYLVANIA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW 
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS MOMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF OUR 
DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
MOVE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK SHOULD BE 
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW TO FALL. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THURSDAY MORNING, FALL AT ITS 
HEAVIEST DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST PART OF 
THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE 
REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY MORNING. 

WHILE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON HEAVIER 
TRAVELED ROADS, UNDER THE PRESENT SCENARIO MOST, IF NOT ALL, 
UNTREATED ROADS SHOULD BE SNOW COVERED BY THE EVENING COMMUTE. WINDS 
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SHOULD NOT BE 
A PROBLEM. CONVERSELY THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE POWDERY 
SIDE AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS TO POWER LINES. 

PLEASE LISTEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR 
ADVISORIES. PLEASE MAKE ALL YOUR THE NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TODAY 
AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES.
 
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER MIGHT
OCCUR, BUT IS NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$


THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH 
EARLY 2005.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS THURSDAY INTO 
THURSDAY NIGHT.

=====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION      2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
=====================================================================

MPO          60     30     15      5     <5     <5     <5
ABE          60     30     15      5     <5     <5     <5 
PHL          70     50     25     10      5     <5     <5   
ACY          80     65     45     15      5     <5     <5
GED          85     75     55     25     15     <5     <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

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TFG