[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 2/19/2005 3:49:25 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS41 KPHI 192023
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
248 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2005

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-
067>071-201100-
BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CARBON PA-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-
MIDDLESEX NJ-MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHAMPTON PA-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...CAMDEN...
NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...PHILADELPHIA...READING...
TRENTON AND WILMINGTON
248 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH AREA INCLUDE...

IN PENNSYLVANIA...

CARBON...MONROE...BERKS...LEHIGH...
NORTHAMPTON...CHESTER...MONTGOMERY...BUCKS...DELAWARE AND
PHILADELPHIA.

IN NEW JERSEY...

SUSSEX...WARREN...HUNTERDON...MORRIS...SOMERSET...MERCER...
MIDDLESEX...SALEM...GLOUCESTER...CAMDEN...BURLINGTON...AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF OCEAN AND MONMOUTH.

IN DELAWARE...

NEW CASTLE.

AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...

CECIL.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. 
AT THE START OF THE EVENT, THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 20S, SO THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AS SNOW.  

BY MONDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION AND
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.  

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM, JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM AIR GETS, AND WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION FALLS WHERE AND FOR HOW LONG.

AT THIS TIME, OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE POCONOS,
NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY, AS WELL AS NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THESE NUMBERS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN THE
WARM AIR EVENTUALLY ADVANCES, AND HOW MUCH MIXING THERE IS BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
 
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ROADS
BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. PLEASE TRY TO COMPLETE ANY TRAVEL BEFORE
THEN. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ALLOW EXTRA
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NEW JERSEY IS
CONTINUALLY MONITORING THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM.

$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2004 THROUGH 
EARLY 2005.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS LATE SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. 

=====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION      2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
=====================================================================

MPO          80     70     50     20     10     <5     <5 
ABE          80     70     50     20     10     <5     <5 
PHL          75     55     30     10      5     <5     <5 
ACY          50     20      5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
GED          50     20      5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) 
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)


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