[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 12/14/2005 3:17:36 PM

n2qae at arrl.net n2qae at arrl.net
Wed Dec 14 15:17:36 EST 2005


WWUS41 KPHI 142011
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
311 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM ON THE WAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND
SLEET AS WELL AS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

NJZ009-010-PAZ067>069-150415-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.A.0003.051215T1900Z-051216T1200Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
311 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN AND THEN TO ALL RAIN BEFORE IT ENDS FRIDAY MORNING.
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NORTHEAST AND REACH ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS 
THURSDAY EVENING AND PASS THROUGH NEW JERSEY ON FRIDAY ON ITS WAY 
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. 

PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH, SNOW 
IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH, AND CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN 
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION 
IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT NIGHT OVER LOCATIONS WHERE THERE IS STILL A 
DEEP SNOW COVER RAISES THE CONCERN THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE 
WARM AIR TO REACH THE REGION, THUS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING 
RAIN IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND UPPER PARTS OF THE 
WATCH AREA. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACT AMOUNTS, VERY 
LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE START. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 
A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES 
BEFORE THE LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN OCCURS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS 
THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD MAKE 
DRIVING VERY TREACHEROUS IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE AND WILL 
BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS ON UNTREATED ROADS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WINTER WEATHER
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL 
BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.  

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE 
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.


$$

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-150415-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0003.051215T1900Z-051216T1700Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
311 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CONTINUED THE WINTER 
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN 
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NORTHEAST AND REACH ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS 
THURSDAY EVENING AND PASS THROUGH NEW JERSEY ON FRIDAY ON ITS WAY 
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. 

PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH, SNOW 
IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH, AND CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN 
THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR LOCKED INTO THE 
AREA, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY 
NIGHT. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACT AMOUNTS, A FEW 
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF 
ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES. THE FACT THAT MOST OF THIS 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT NIGHT OVER LOCATIONS WHERE 
THERE IS STILL A DEEP SNOW COVER RAISES THE CONCERN FOR A PROLONGED 
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN 
ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD MAKE 
DRIVING VERY TREACHEROUS IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE AND WILL 
BECOME MORE HAZARDOUS ON UNTREATED ROADS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, 
TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE EXPOSED TO INCREASED STRESS IF THE 
REGION EXPERIENCES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WINTER WEATHER
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL 
BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST 
WINDS ON FRIDAY MIGHT BRING MORE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE 
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

$$

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-150415-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0003.051215T1900Z-051216T1700Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
311 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CONTINUED THE WINTER 
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND THEN TO 
FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY TO ALL RAIN BEFORE IT ENDS FRIDAY 
MORNING.
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NORTHEAST AND REACH ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS 
THURSDAY EVENING AND PASS THROUGH NEW JERSEY ON FRIDAY ON ITS WAY 
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING. 

PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS WARMER AIR SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH, SNOW 
IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH, AND CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN 
THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR LOCKED INTO THE 
AREA, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY 
NIGHT. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACT AMOUNTS, A COUPLE OF 
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF 
ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES. THE FACT THAT MOST OF THIS 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT NIGHT OVER LOCATIONS WHERE 
THERE IS STILL A DEEP SNOW COVER RAISES THE CONCERN FOR A PROLONGED 
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN 
ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COULD MAKE 
DRIVING VERY TREACHEROUS IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE AND WILL 
BECOME MORE HAZARDOUS ON UNTREATED ROADS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, 
TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE EXPOSED TO INCREASED STRESS IF THE 
REGION EXPERIENCES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WINTER WEATHER
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL 
BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST 
WINDS ON FRIDAY MIGHT BRING MORE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE 
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

$$


******************************************************************

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2005 THROUGH 
EARLY 2006.  THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A 
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 
POTENTIAL STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

=====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION      2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
=====================================================================

MPO          70     50     25     10      5     <5     <5 
ABE          50     20      5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
PHL          10     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
ACY          <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
GED          <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5     <5 
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

TFG/RPW







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