[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 12/4/2005 3:47:35 PM

[n2qae at arrl.net]

WWUS41 KPHI 042047
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-
050500-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.051205T1800Z-051206T1200Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-QUEEN ANNE'S-
TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA
347 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING WAS HEADING WELL OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. COLDER AIR WAS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW AND WAS
HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY
TONIGHT TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING US ENTRENCHED IN THE COLDER AIR AND
PRIMING OUR REGION FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER GEORGIA ON MONDAY MORNING, 
RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT, AND EXIT OFF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF 
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS WHERE THE SNOW COULD MIX 
WITH SLEET AT TIMES.

FORECASTING TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEVELOPING  
STORMS EVOLUTION AND ALSO WHERE IT ULTIMATELY EXITS OFF THE 
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THESE ARE IMPORTANT FACTORS WHEN TRYING TO 
FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS. AN EXIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OFF THE 
MID-ATLANTIC COAST COULD PROVIDE US WITH LESS SNOW WHILE A JOG TO 
THE NORTH COULD MEAN MORE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOUR 
OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. WITH THIS IN 
MIND, THE MOST RECENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR 
FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. AREAS IN THE WATCH 
MAY CHANGE. ALSO WARNINGS COULD BE POSTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2005
THROUGH EARLY 2006. THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

=====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

=====================================================================
STATION      2IN    4IN    6IN    9IN   12IN   18IN   24IN
=====================================================================

MPO          60     30     15      5     <5     <5     <5 
ABE          70     50     25     10      5     <5     <5
PHL          80     70     50     20     10     <5     <5 
ACY          80     70     50     20     10     <5     <5
GED          80     70     50     20     10     <5     <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

KRUZDLO


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