[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 1/31/2004 3:31:07 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 312033
SPSPHI
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-011100-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
335 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2004


...A WINTER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST DURING TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ROUND OF COLD WEATHER 
WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS 
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE KEY IN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT 
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS 
THE MOISTURE ARRIVES.

THE LATEST PROJECTIONS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOME. THIS MAY ALLOW THE REGIONS TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT MORE 
DURING TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COULD 
GREATLY IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THAT OCCURS IN PARTS OF 
THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME, A MIX OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD 
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MILDER AIR IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY, WHICH 
SHOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FROM ABOUT 
PHILADELPHIA SOUTH AND EAST. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY, 
THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD REMAIN 
IN PLACE WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE AND 
OR SNOW.

THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.
THE EXACT STORM TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY TELL THE STORY ON WHERE THE 
HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION OCCURS. IF THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS 
FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH, ANY MILDER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE 
REGION COULD BE PINCHED OFF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE FROZEN 
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH.

LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER PINPOINT THE TYPE, AMOUNT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR 
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
$$

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (IN LOWER CASE).

GORSE