[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 1/16/2004 3:34:21 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 162033
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2004


DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ067>071-
171000-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-INLAND SUSSEX DE-
KENT MD-KENT DE-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-TALBOT MD-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
332 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2004


 ...ANOTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY...    

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO SEPARATE 
SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR 
MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIPPING SOUTHEAST 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN TEXAS WILL STREAM 
NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT IN THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE 
SETTLING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW 
AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR. THIS WILL BE DONE 
MORE EFFICIENTLY ALOFT THAN NEAR THE SURFACE. 

THE RESULT WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA 
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THAT WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SLEET SHOULD MIX 
IN ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. ON SUNDAY 
MORNING PLAIN RAIN SHOULD START MIXING IN ACROSS THE DELMARVA WITH A 
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. 

THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER 
TEXAS. IT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AND HITCH A RIDE ALONG THE 
NORTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. THE MORE RELIABLE 
FORECAST MODELS FOR NOW ARE SUPPRESSING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WHERE
IT WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL, THE DELMARVA, IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. BUT, COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AND IF MOISTURE BUILDS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST
THAN EXPECTED, A SECOND SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIGHT OCCUR
DURING THE LATTER PART OF SUNDAY.

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. 
NEVERTHELESS, SLEET AND SNOW FALLING ON UNTREATED SURFACES COULD 
MAKE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVELING CONDITIONS. 

PLEASE LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENT AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES AS THE 
EVENT COMES CLOSER.

$$

GIGI


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