[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 12/17/2004 4:53:29 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 170937
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
432 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-172200-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
432 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2004


...A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN CONSIDERABLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY MONDAY AND 
MONDAY NIGHT...

WE HAVE HAD LITTLE IF ANY SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON AND EASY FORECAST 
DECISIONS TO MAKE. BUT THIS IS ABOUT TO CHANGE FOR ALL OF US OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THEN 
STALL IN THE CAROLINAS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT 
PARTICULARLY COLD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD FORM ON THIS FRONT 
EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW COULD REACH INTO DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. 
THE AIR MASS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND MOST OF 
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. 

THE MORE COMPLICATED PART OF THE FORECAST ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY AND 
SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 
EASTERN UNITED STATES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
OFF OF THE VIRGINIA OR NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE 
NORTHEAST WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. ALL OF THE COMPUTER MODELS  
KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE FOR THE MOMENT.
PRECIPITATION MIGHT FALL AS MAINLY RAIN DURING SUNDAY DAY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS MAINLY SNOW IN ALL AREAS. 

THIS FAR IN THE FUTURE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS MIGHT LEAD TO THE 
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AFFECTING OUR AREA. THE 
ADDED COMPLICATION IS THAT THIS IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO 
FORM, AS OPPOSED TO FOLLOWING AN ALREADY EXISTING ONE AND TRACKING 
THE MODEL PERFORMANCE ON IT. 

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME ALL FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT THE STEADY 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MONDAY MORNING. BUT, AS THE UPPER 
AIR TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW SQUALLS MIGHT 
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING. 

THE ONE CERTAINTY THAT HAS HELD ABOUT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, IT 
WILL BECOME UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WINDY. WHAT SNOW THAT DOES FALL, 
WILL NOT MELT AND WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVELING CONDITIONS. 

NO MATTER THE OUTCOME OF THE UPCOMING EVENTS, IT WOULD BE WISE TO 
MAKE ALL YOUR GENERAL WINTER PREPARATIONS. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NOT 
BE OUR LAST BRUSH WITH SNOW THIS WINTER SEASON. PLEASE LISTEN FOR 
FURTHER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.  

$$

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR
FURTHER UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT US ON THE
INTERNET AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (ALL LOWERCASE).


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