[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 9/16/2003 5:18:05 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 162105
SPSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-170900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
502 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE MIDDLE 
ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE 
COASTLINE, THE DELAWARE BAY, CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE NEW JERSEY 
COASTLINE FROM CAPE MAY NORTH THROUGH LITTLE EGG INLET... 

HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN UNITED 
STATES, BUT IS STILL AROUND TWO DAYS FROM MAKING LANDFALL. NOW IS A 
GOOD TIME TO REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PLAN, AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT 
THE PLAN IF NECESSARY. 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 39 TO 
73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT 
FOR ALL PERTINENT DETAILS. 

DISCUSSION:  EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FROM THE 
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WELL 
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, HIGH WIND CONDITIONS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 
COULD STILL THREATEN THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  

WINDS:  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY 
AS THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE ISABEL INTERACTS WITH SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST, THEY WILL ALSO 
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR 
ON THE COAST. 

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS COULD 
EXCEED 50 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR LOCALES WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ON 
THE COAST. AS THE SPIRAL BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE MAKE 
LANDFALL, TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES 
ARE POSSIBLE. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR. 

RAIN AND FLOODING:  HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN 
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND LATE 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF THURSDAY NIGHT. PERIODS 
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT ESTIMATES 
INDICATE THAT THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE 
REGION IN ABOUT A TWELVE HOUR PERIOD. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN MANY 
LOCALES IF THE THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACTUALLY DOES OCCUR. 
WHERE HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED THIS PAST SATURDAY THROUGH 
MONDAY...FLOODING WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. PLEASE REFER TO 
OUR FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.  

NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OCEAN FRONT AND BAYS:  THE EFFECTS FROM 
HURRICANE ISABEL ARE ALREADY BEING FELT ACROSS THE NEW JERSEY  
COAST. SEAS AND BREAKERS ALONG THE BEACHFRONT ARE RUNNING IN 
THE FIVE TO EIGHT FOOT RANGE. SEAS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 18 TO 22 FOOT RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE 
BREAKERS WILL APPROACH 10 FEET. THE THREAT OF BEACH EROSION, MINOR 
TIDAL FLOODING, AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY 
NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO OUR MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS. FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE BAY 
WATERS PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT.

DISASTER PLAN:  WHEN THREATENED BY POSSIBLE HURRICANE OR TROPICAL 
STORM CONDITIONS, KNOW THE RISKS IN YOUR AREA SUCH AS WHETHER YOU 
LIVE IN A POTENTIAL FLOOD ZONE, LEARNING SAFE ROUTES INLAND FROM 
COASTAL AREAS, AND FINDING OUT WHERE OFFICIAL SHELTERS ARE LOCATED. 

FOR REVIEW, ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARTS OF YOUR FAMILY DISASTER 
PLAN IS THE PREPARATION OF A DISASTER SUPPLIES KIT. THIS KIT SHOULD 
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING MATERIALS, A THREE DAY SUPPLY OF WATER WITH 
ONE GALLON PER PERSON PER DAY, FOOD THAT WILL NOT SPOIL, 
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES, A FIRST AID KIT, A BATTERY POWERED NOAA 
WEATHER RADIO AND A PORTABLE RADIO, EMERGENCY TOOLS, A FLASHLIGHT 
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES, AN EXTRA SET OF CAR KEYS, AND ANY SPECIAL 
ITEMS FOR AN INFANT, THE ELDERLY OR DISABLED FAMILY MEMBERS. 

KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXPECTED PATH OF HURRICANE ISABEL THE NEXT 
COUPLE DAYS. WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND ADVISORIES COULD BE CHANGED OR 
MODIFIED AS FURTHER FORECAST TRACKS ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER.

$$

MORE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI   CHECK OUT THE MENU SELECTION ENTITLED 
PREPAREDNESS ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE.  

AND PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING INTERNET SOURCES FOR ADDITIONAL 
HURRICANE POTENTIAL INFORMATION AND PREPAREDNESS ISSUES... 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

PENNSYLVANIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://PEMA.STATE.PA.US

MARYLAND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://WWW.MEMA.STATE.MD.US

NEW JERSEY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT:
HTTP://WWW.STATE.NJ.US/NJOEM

DELAWARE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://WWW.STATE.DE.US/DEMA

FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.FEMA.GOV/HAZARDS/HURRICANES

AMERICAN RED CROSS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.RED CROSS.ORG

$$

KRUZDLO