[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/15/2003 5:15:32 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 151021
SPSPHI
DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-152200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
520 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

...PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS INTO MONDAY COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST 
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST AND BACK BAYS AS WELL AS MINOR 
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY...

AN EAST-WEST STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL 
TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WITH THE 
STRONGEST LOW LIKELY TO MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MOVE SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL CAUSE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN 
PRESSURE...CAUSING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS.

WITH A FULL MOON SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN 
NORMAL. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE 
TIDE LEVELS AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT AND THE BACK 
BAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT TIDES COULD REACH INTO 
THE RANGE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...ALTHOUGH 
WITH SUCH A STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THIS GUIDANCE MAY
BE UNDERDONE AND NOT FULLY REFLECT HOW MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THE TIDES 
WILL EVENTUALLY BE.   

NORTHEAST WINDS IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE 
MORE THAN ANY OTHER WIND DIRECTION...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 
HEAVY SURF ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY SUNDAY 
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WHEN THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. A 
GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST AND A 
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND LOWER 
DELAWARE BAY SECTIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
AT PRESENT...THE PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL 
FLOODING WILL BE AROUND THE HIGH TIDES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...EARLY 
SUNDAY EVENING...AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST VULNERABLE 
TIME BEING THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.

COASTAL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND 
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENT A 
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED. IT IS BEST TO BE 
PREPARED AHEAD OF TIME SHOULD COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS 
BECOME NECESSARY.
 
$$

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION. IF YOU 
HAVE ACCESS TO A COMPUTER...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT 
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI. 


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