[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 05/02/2002 03:52:00

[n2qae@arrl.net]

WWUS81 KPHI 020751
SPSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>026-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-021600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

IN A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO FROM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS 
MORNING PRECEDING A WARM FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON SUN. 
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION 
TONIGHT. 

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS EXIT THIS MORNING...HOW 
QUICKLY THE SUN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE 
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL ALL HAVE A BEARING ON THE INTENSITY OF 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND WILL BE QUITE ROBUST AND STRONGER 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX THESE WINDS TO THE 
GROUND. THEREFORE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS 
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
 
THE SUN WILL NOT BE OUR FRIEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOONER THE SUN 
STARTS SHINING...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL GET AND THE STRONGER 
THE STORMS WILL BE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP 
OVER THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD. IF 
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BECOMES AVAILABLE...A SQUALL LINE MAY FORM. 
THE SECOND FACTOR WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION. SOME COMPUTER MODELS 
ARE SUGGESTING THAT WINDS MIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST PRIOR TO THE 
ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS. IF THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LESS 
WARM AND HUMID AIR TO INGEST AND MIGHT NOT REACH SEVERE LIMITS OR 
FORM A LINE. 

SINCE WINDS ABOVE THE GROUND ARE BLOWING FROM THE SAME DIRECTION... 
THE GREATEST THREATS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND 
LARGE HAIL.   

IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OR 
EVENING...KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND AN EAR TO THE WEATHER RADIO... 
TO LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AS WELL AS ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS 
WHICH MIGHT BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.

$$

TFG

WWWW