[Milsurplus] Coronal Mass Ejection

[Robert Nickels]

On 8/1/2014 8:57 AM, Peter Gottlieb wrote:
>
> Does anyone really know the kind of surge/interference a CME would 
> cause?  Is it a low frequency event which mostly disrupts things like 
> the grid due to it being such a large antenna? 

Peter, all -

The vulnerability of critical national infrastructure to EMP attack has 
been studied extensively and at least some of those findings are readily 
available.  A good starting point is this 2004 report: 
www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf

The focus of this report is a nuclear EMP attack, so the question then 
becomes how a large CME might compare in terms of intensity. I've read 
estimates as high as hundreds of kilovolts per meter from an EMP attack, 
but the intensity of even a Carrington-class (1859) CME is much less.   
But here is one description from a credible source that indicates it 
would still be sufficient to cause a great deal of damage and disruption:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/

Rather than speculate, I would refer those interested to this follow-up 
report from 2008 that describes a number of mechanisms by which critical 
national infrastructures are susceptible to EMP:

www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf

As you will learn, the damage to the electrical transmission (and to a 
lesser extent, distribution) grid would result in part from improper 
shutdown caused by disruption of the vulnerable SCADA and control 
systems.   So, depending on the intensity of the CME and many other 
factors that are probably impossible to model or predict, the one sure 
answer is "it depends".   But when you consider the failure mechanisms, 
it seems most likely to me that many systems (including human ones) will 
tear themselves apart soon afterward even if they survive the initial event.

73, Bob W9RAN