[Milsurplus] [ARC5] Approximate Valuation of some ARC-5 Sets

[Don Merz]

I used to think everything peaked 2 years ago at the height of the bubble. Now, I am not so sure. I think it all could come back. But it certainly is an uphill climb. 

Hard goods of all types---even paintings by Picasso--are big casualties in any recession. Look at what has happened in the collectible car market. Those poor folks have taken an absolute blood bath in the last 2 years. 

Radio prices have fallen of course. If you liked old radio prices in 1995, you will like them even better now--because they are about the same. Considering that 15 years of inflation has gone by since then, this is not good for people with radios. 

As always, the high end of the market holds up the best. Anything with the word "Collins" on it has held its value very well. The rarest military and 1930's ham sets are doing decently but not great. Everything else is in the toilet. Wooden sets? I saw a Grebe on Saturday that looked brand new--all original, unrestored--it sparkled! Price? $375. Catalins are the antique radio guys equivalent of Collins and they are doing well. Cathedrals are are holding up well too but not gaining. All the other wooden and bakelite sets are in the toilet. The 01A tubes in the 3-dialers are worth WAY more than the radios. Brand and condition are  irrelevant.

Speaking of which, the tube market is very depressed. A good friend of mine has made his living the last 20 years buying and selling tubes. For the last year, he has deliberately continued to buy but he sells nothing because he can't get his price. He is convinced it will all come around again. Another tube market hazard is that many of the buyers are audio and guitar kooks. They have expectations straight out of fantasy land. Heck I remember when the only question you ever got asked was "is the filament good?"

Stuff you can't give away: wooden console radios, mercury vapor rectifiers, teletype and oscilloscopes! Even the Tek scopes that we drooled over are literally a dime a dozen. In some cases the probes are worth more than the scopes. 

Odd stuff to be alert for: Very early computers by Osborne and DEC. Old DEC PDP machines and parts are selling well and increasing in value. Railroad collectibles seem to be doing okay too. 

Ah well....so it goes.
73, Don Merz, N3RHT



----- Original Message ----
From: David Stinson <arc5 at ix.netcom.com>
To: jfor at quik.com
Cc: milsurplus at mailman.qth.net
Sent: Wed, April 21, 2010 10:15:58 AM
Subject: Re: [Milsurplus] [ARC5] Approximate Valuation of some ARC-5 Sets

John:
I've given this a little thought, trying to make a "best guess."
Two factors:  

First: The price peak in common collectable milradios 
is long, long past. You can still get a premium for 
excellent to NOS condition, but not a huge one.  
German or Japanese are still peaking, but on the way down.
Those guys that have been hoarding mil-radios in their barns
to retire on are going to be bitterly disappointed.
They should take what they can get now.  
If they still want them, they'll be able to buy them back
for far less buying power after our hyper-inflation peaks
sometime in the next 3-5 years.

Second:  These aren't being sold into the huge Ebay market, 
so do not command the bigger prices you get at Ebay.
Any direct-sale market is very small, and thus does not have
anything near Ebay's pricing power.  Most hams would not
buy these at any price, and the mil-vehicle community has 
absorbed about all it can by now.  There are only so 
many museums, and even they are turning stuff away.

Were I in this small market and had the money,
I'd be willing to pay up to:

>>> T-19  $35 (common transmitter prices are most depressed)
>>> R-23  $30 (very common radio)
>>> R-24  $50
>>> R-27  $40
>>> BC-496A $25
>>> BC-473  $25

Not as much as some say, but that's my best guess, 
given a direct-buy situation.
As I say- were I in the market and at a hamfest,  and had some
extra money (ha ha....), I would pay these prices and walk 
away from higher.  Well.... I might reconsider the control boxes,
because they're hard to find.  A BC-450 I wouldn't buy 
for $10, unless it was a NOS A.R.C. 1470-NY-41.
Fair has a stack of them they can't sell.
Hope this is some help.
73 Dave S.

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