[MarinTeams] Wet Weather on the way..

Bill Smith hbco2 at sbcglobal.net
Thu Oct 8 19:36:00 EDT 2009


SFO Area Weather forecast for next Monday and Tuesday:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=mtr&pil=afd

<snips>

THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...FORMER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON MELOR

....WILL EJECT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL INTENSIFY THE JET... WITH THE  JET RACING TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
 
 WARM ADVECTION/WARM FRONTAL RAINS WILL START ON MONDAY...SPREADING SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP MONDAY AHEAD OF
 THE RAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING DUST AND DIRT FROM THE FIELDS ACROSS ROADWAYS. RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

 925 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT...PERPENDICULAR TO THE HILLS. 

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES. THE
 HILLS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES.
 
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP PINPOINT THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG ITS
MEMBERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY.


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