[Lowfer] Observations

[Mike Staines]

I have been playing around with POES data and I have had some interesting
correlations.
For the unwashed, here is NOAA's description of POES:

-------------
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons
and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SEC has developed a
technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single
pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to
estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these
auroral particles.
-------------

There is also a relationship established between POES measurements and Kp.

Lyle reported:

<WE disappeared abruptly and completely at a little after 2100 local time
yesterday, and came back just as abruptly at about 11 PM.>

Looking at the POES data for the time we see the following:
At 0115 GMT (before WE went away) the solar flux was 16.6 GW. WE dropped out
at 2100 GMT and that is when the solar flux had dropped to 8 GW, about one
half the earlier power. At the 0430 GMT measurement (one half hour after WE
returned) the solar flux was up to 11GW and rising.

Mitch reported:

<You might like to look at something that popped up this afternoon between 3
and 4 pm ( your 2 - 3 pm CST) . Along with TMO, as you can see, is a ghostly
LEK moving right through the captures.>

The POES data at 1821 GMT (1/2 hour prior to reception) showed 26.4 GW. At
2001 GMT (at the end of reception) it was reporting 17.1 GW on its way up to
24.8 GW at 2129 GMT. It would be real nice for my hypothesis if the actual
(unmeasured) flux at that 1900 GMT (the start of reception) was down around
12 GW or so.

In addition, I have tried to correlate reports on this list along with my
24X7 collection of Larry's ARGO screens (I get a screenshot of Larry's ARGO
screen every 15 minutes). Unfortunately, we have both a loss of ground wave
signal incident and an unexpected skywave signal incident to deal with. I am
not sure my observations can explain both, but I'm working on it.

I don't have firm baselines yet but I am beginning to believe that we get
good propagation amongst us (from Lyle eastward) on THIS band when the flux
goes to about 7-14 GW. Above or below this value we don't seem to derive any
benefit. But my casual observations of Larry's reception of TMO and WA/ does
seem to show correlation with these values.

Perhaps I am re-inventing the wheel here but I think I will track this a
little closer.

Comments and observations are requested.

73, Mike
wa1ptc