[LeArc] severe weather potential increasing

[Brandon Sullivan]

REAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IA...CENTRAL IL AND WCENTRAL IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 041801Z - 042030Z

   CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER FAR SERN IA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE
   MOVING ESEWD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FROM
   SERN IA INTO WCENTRAL IND. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING
   TRENDS AND A POSSIBLE WW.

   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM FAR SERN IA TO NEAR PIA TO NEAR IND. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
   FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. BASED ON RADAR/VIS SAT IMAGERY THE REMNANTS OF
   A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS SUPPORTED THE FORMATION OF AN MCV OVER SERN
   IA. MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV WAS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS
   BASED ON THE SLATER PROFILER AND DSM/DVN VWP DATA. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
   FIELDS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER CENTRAL IL...30 KTS WERE MEASURED AT
   6KM FROM THE ILX VWP...THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   IF SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION/CELL MERGERS CAN OCCUR WITH NEW
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR SERN IA AND WCENTRAL IL...AN
   INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.