[LeArc] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 5/24/06

[Duane Whittingham]

..SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.  WE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY INTO
THE MID 80S. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT INDICATED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S... COMBINED WITH
HEATING WILL FUEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXCEPTED TO OCCUR IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI BY MID AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST OF DUBUQUE...TO
IOWA CITY...AND TO WEST OF MEMPHIS MISSOURI. THESE FIRST STORMS MAY
BE SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE...AND EVOLVE INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SQUALL
LINE THAT WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 9 PM.

IF TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WITH POTENTIALLY ISOLATED SPEEDS EVEN HIGHER
THAN 80 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONT...OR OTHER TYPE OF BOUNDARIES THAT MAY FORM ACROSS
THE AREA. IF SURFACE WINDS ARE STRONG AND REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...STRONGER AND LONGER LIVED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
AN INCH OR TWO BY THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A CONFERENCE CALL
FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND COUNTY OFFICIALS WILL BE CONDUCTED AT
NOON.

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Amateur Radio Operator
Duane Whittingham - N9SSN
Skywarn, ARES/RACES, EMA/ESDA
Red Cross and SATERN