[LeArc] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626

[Duane Whittingham]

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0739 PM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

    AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL IA

    CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

    VALID 260039Z - 260245Z

    POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL EXIST NEXT FEW HOURS
    FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
    DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP. A
    WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT INITIATION IS
    IMMINENT.

    A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH SERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA FROM A
    SURFACE LOW OVER N CNTRL KS. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY
    SEPARATING DEEPLY MIXED...HOT...DRYER IN KS AIR FROM THE CLOUDY
    COOLER REGIME IN NEB/IA EXTENDS ACROSS NRN KS. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
    CLOUDS/CONVECTION PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY FORM ERN NEB INTO IA
    AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN
    ESEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 00Z RAOB FROM OMAHA SHOWS
    MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY LOW LEVEL
    FLOW E OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SERN NEB VEERING TO WNWLY 35 KT AT 6 KM
    IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT WITH WEAK
    UPPER FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
    CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATION. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
    INCREASE AS THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS NERN
    KS...SERN NEB INTO IA...WITH THE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
    FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY
    INITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH OUTFLOW DOMINANT SUPERCELL
    STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...FEED OF DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN
    STORMS DEVELOPING COLD POOLS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ESEWD
    PROPAGATING MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH STORMS
    DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.

    ..DIAL.. 07/26/2006


    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...


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Amateur Radio Operator
Duane Whittingham - N9SSN
Skywarn, ARES/RACES, EMA/ESDA
Red Cross and SATERN