[LeArc] MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433

[Duane Whittingham]

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1036 PM CDT WED APR 05 2006

    AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO NWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN IA

    CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

    VALID 060336Z - 060500Z

    ELEVATED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION
    AREA OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
    STORMS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

    AS OF 0320Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF
    ELEVATED STORMS FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY NWWD INTO CALLAWAY COUNTY MO
    WITH NICKEL TO GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED.  ANOTHER
    CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS PERSISTED FROM NEAR CID SEWD TO E OF
    UIN.  FINALLY...IR SATELLITE DATA SHOW A BAND OF CLOUD ENHANCEMENT
    FROM THE ONGOING...E-CNTRL MO ACTIVITY NWWD TO NEAR OMA.

    REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
    THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG AN INTENSIFYING SLY/SWLY LLJ
    ON THE ERN OR NERN EDGE OF CAP WHICH IS IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL
    PLAINS /PER 00Z SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS/.  HERE...INCREASING MOISTURE
    IN THE 850-800 MB LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
    RESULTING IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH
    MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

    AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT OWING TO
    FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LLJ AND RESULTANT FORCING VIA WAA AND
    ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH
    THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
    STRONGEST STORMS.

    ..MEAD.. 04/06/2006

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Amateur Radio Operator
Duane Whittingham - N9SSN
Skywarn, ARES/RACES, EMA/ESDA
Red Cross and SATERN