[LeArc] DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

[Duane Whittingham]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0235 PM CDT SUN MAY 02 2004

    VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

    THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
    CMI 20 ESE MDH 50 WSW ARG FYV JLN 40 SW SZL 30 W UIN 20 NW MLI 35
    WNW MMO 25 NNW CMI.

    THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
    DAB 15 SE DAB 15 S PIE ...CONT... 20 ENE AQQ 45 NW AYS 20 WNW CLT 35
    ENE EKN 25 NNE ROC 10 WSW ART 20 NNE UCA 30 WNW WAL 25 SE ORF.

    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW 3B1 20 SSW PVD
    ...CONT... PBI 60 WSW MIA ...CONT... 15 WSW PNS 20 S AUO 30 W AHN 15
    NNE HSS 20 W PKB 25 NE ERI.

    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 35 E P24
    40 SSE ISN OLF 65 ENE HVR.

    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N LAF 30 SE BMG 40
    E OWB 15 E MKL LIT 20 SE MKO 40 WSW EMP 25 SSW SUX 25 SW SPW 30 ENE
    DBQ 15 N LAF.

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
    THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
    CNTRL NY SWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO NRN FL...

    ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY...
    SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
    THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD
    POOL WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STEEPENING LOW TO
    MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
    THUS FAR HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED INVOF SURFACE LOW /COINCIDENT WITH
    MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/ SSEWD ALONG WEAK WARM FRONT FROM E-CNTRL IA
    INTO CNTRL IL. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG
    TRAILING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT FROM N-CNTRL INTO WRN MO AND SERN KS
    IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX
    DIVING SEWD INTO MEAN TROUGH POSITION.

    COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY
    SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
    EVENING HOURS. FASTER STORM MOTIONS OBSERVED OVER SWRN MO MAY
    PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
    LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS.

    ...NY SWD INTO NC...
    CLOUD BREAKS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
    WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON
    FROM THE PIEDMONT REGION NWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF PA AND NY.
    LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING
    AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS DEVELOPING
    INSTABILITY AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONGER MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
    ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING EWD ATOP SLY/SSELY SURFACE WINDS WITH SHEAR
    PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN EVOLVING
    LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE.

    DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTIVE
    MODE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR. NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
    WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A CORRIDOR FROM N-CNTRL VA NWD THROUGH CNTRL
    PA/NY WHERE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT /EVIDENT IN PRONOUNCED
    PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET/ IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

    ...SERN STATES/FL...
    SMALL MCS HAS SLOWLY EVOLVED TODAY OVER GA WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
    SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOOKEND VORTEX AND RESULTING BOWING
    STRUCTURE ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS
    ERN GA AND SC HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
    TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 70S INTO LOWER 80S WITH
    DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
    STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE W WILL SUPPORT A
    CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
    COAST THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE MCD 558.


    FARTHER S ACROSS THE ERN FL PENINSULA SWWD INTO ERN GULF OF
    MEXICO...FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
    OF HOURS. THOUGH STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N
    OF AREA...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN PENINSULA
    WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH
    THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

    ..MEAD.. 05/02/2004


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Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows & Saturday Morning Confusion
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