[LeArc] FW: AstroAlert: Predicted Effects of Recent Strong Solar Activity
Jay Hainline
[email protected]
Mon, 27 Oct 2003 21:30:45 +0000
Here is the latest from the recent flare activity.
Jay Hainline KA9CFD EN40om
Colchester, IL
[email protected]
http://www.qsl.net/learc=20
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Cary Oler
Sent: Monday, October 27, 2003 14:06
To: [email protected]
Subject: AstroAlert: Predicted Effects of Recent Strong Solar Activity
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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com
Images of this event are available at:
http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html
27 October 2003
EFFECTS OF RECENT STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY
Two major X-class solar flares were observed on 26 October, one =
from
each of the major sunspot groups presently visible (Regions 484 and =
486).
Each major flare was associated with a coronal mass ejection, but it =
appears
that the mass from each ejection is directed primarily away from the =
Earth
(to the east and west of the Earth, essentially bracketing the Earth =
between
ejections of mass). Because of this, the chances of observing a space
weather storm are subdued, yet still possible on 28 and 29 October.
A middle latitude auroral activity watch has been extended to cover =
the
period from 27 through to 29 October. The first disturbance from =
Sunday's
activity is expected to impact early in the UTC day of 28 October (late
evening hours of Monday night over eastern North America).
Although forecasters are not expecting this to be a particularly
impressive disturbance, it is valuable to understand that each =
disturbance
is unique. No two are alike. And for this reason, even though =
predictions
say activity might not be particularly strong, it is a possibility that
cannot be discounted.
Space weather forecasting is not a precise science. We do not have =
the
ability to take measurements at critical points in space as we can take
measurements of critical atmospheric quantities on the Earth. What tools =
we
have would be somewhat analagous to a meteorologist predicting the =
arrival
and intensity of a storm front based on the data from a single station
located over a thousand miles away. It's possible to do, but accuracy =
and
timing suffer. So don't be surprised if space weather predictions aren't
always as accurate as might be desired. Mankind has a long way to go =
before
space weather forecasting is as routine as meteorological forecasting.
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH EXTENDED: 13:30 UTC, 27 OCTOBER 2003
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
VALID BEGINNING AT: 19:00 UTC ON 27 OCTOBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 29 OCTOBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 28 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 - 29 OCTOBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 40, 30, 25 (27 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT =3D 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT =3D 18 TO 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW
JERSEY.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO NORTHERN =
POLAND
TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN) REGIONS =
OF
AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
Active to brief major auroral storm conditions could develop over =
the
next 24 hours in response to recent strong coronal mass ejection =
activity.
Additional stronger impacts are possible over the next several days.
Observers are encouraged to keep a close eye on conditions.
This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 29
October. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For =
real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
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