[LeArc] FW: AstroAlert: A Record-Breaking Solar Flare!

[Jay Hainline]

Jay Hainline  KA9CFD  EN40om
Colchester, IL
ka9cfd@arrl.net
http://www.qsl.net/learc=20

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-sun-earth@SkyandTelescope.com
[mailto:owner-sun-earth@SkyandTelescope.com] On Behalf Of Cary Oler
Sent: Wednesday, November 05, 2003 22:58
To: sun-earth@SkyandTelescope.com
Subject: AstroAlert: A Record-Breaking Solar Flare!


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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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                            A s t r o  A l e r t
                               Sun-Earth Alert

                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                            http://www.spacew.com

              Images and Movies of this event are available at:
                    http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

                               05 November 2003

A RECORD-BREAKING SOLAR FLARE & MID-LATITUDE AURORA WATCH

     At approximately 19:47 UTC (2:47 pm EST) on 04 November, active =
sunspot
complex 10486 spawned what is probably the most intense x-ray flare in
history. X-ray sensors on-board the GOES spacecraft are only capable of
registering x-ray intensities up to a class X17.4 level. X-ray =
intensities
beyond this level saturate the detectors. This solar flare saturated the
x-ray detectors for 11 minutes, leaving space weather forecasters and
scientists with some work to try and extrapolate the true intensity of =
the
event. Based on a preliminary extrapolation, it appears that this x-ray
flare peaked somewhere between the X30 and X40 levels, which was unheard =
of
until yesterday and is possibly as much as twice as energetic as the X17
solar flare observed on 02 November.

     To place this event into historic perspective, it very likely ranks =
as
the most powerful x-ray flare ever observed. During the last two weeks,
active Region 10486 has produced three x-ray flares that have ranked =
within
the top 10 of the most intense events in history. It has been quite a =
ride!

     Region 10486 has now rotated behind the western limb and out of =
view.
It will now spend the next two weeks traversing the far side of the Sun.
Whether it survives its passage on the far-side and returns to the =
eastern
limb in two weeks in a form still capable of producing energetic events
remains unknown. It is possible it could return in a form still capable =
of
producing energetic events, but the odds are against it.

     Although only time will tell, observers on Earth will be able to
monitor its progress indirectly by watching for coronal mass ejections =
that
occur on the far side of the Sun, but are still visible from Earth via =
the
SOHO LASCO cameras.

     Spectacular imagery of this solar flare and the associated high
velocity coronal mass ejection are available from the SOHO web site:
http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots

     A movie of the event in the light of hydrogen is also available =
from:
http://www.spacew.com/x30ha.gif

     It is known that yesterdays remarkable solar flare was associated =
with
a coronal mass ejection. The vast majority of mass thrown out was =
directed
well to the west of the Earth. However, a small portion was also =
directed
Earthward. That portion is expected to impact the Earth on 06 November.
After the disturbance arrives, it may be capable of producing periods of
minor to major geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. A disturbance as
large as was observed on 29 and 30 October is not expected. =
Nevertheless,
auroral activity could become visible from many middle latitude =
locations. A
middle latitude aurora watch is active for 06 November. For North =
Americans,
that is TONIGHT. Late tonight, near or after local midnight. =
Interference
from the near-full moon will hamper attempts to view activity.


                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                  WATCH ISSUED: 20:15 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER 2003

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 06 NOVEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 07 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE:
     APPROX. 07:00 UTC ON 06 NOVEMBER, +/- AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS =
SEVERAL

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 06 - 07 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 35, 20, 15 (05 NOVEMBER  - 08 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT =3D 06 TO 12 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT =3D 12 TO 18 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN =
MINNESOTA
   TO WISCONSIN TO MIGHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   IRELAND TO CENTRAL UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO
   EXTREME NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND TO
   NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

   NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.

SYNOPSIS...

     Effects of perhaps the largest x-ray solar flare on record are =
expected
to impact the Earth sometime near 07:00 UTC on 06 November, give or take
several hours. The solar flare occurred on the western limb of the Sun =
and
as a result is not expected to produce significant effects at the Earth.
However, the disturbance should have the strength to produce periods of
auroral storming over the high and middle latitude regions.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 07
November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. Most (if not =
all) of
the activity is expected to occur within the first 6 to 12 hours after =
the
disturbance impacts. For this reason, we don't expect very much on 07
November. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of the AstroAlert Bulletin  **
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