[LeArc] FW: AstroAlert: A Pair of Strong X-Class Solar Flares

Mon, 03 Nov 2003 11:48:39 +0000

Jay Hainline  KA9CFD  EN40om
Colchester, IL
[email protected]
http://www.qsl.net/learc=20

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Cary Oler
Sent: Monday, November 03, 2003 04:07
To: [email protected]
Subject: AstroAlert: A Pair of Strong X-Class Solar Flares

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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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                            A s t r o  A l e r t
                               Sun-Earth Alert

                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                            http://www.spacew.com

                               03 November 2003

A PAIR OF STRONG X-CLASS SOLAR FLARES

     The sunspot complex known as Region 488, located just to the north =
of
the power-house Region 486 that was responsible for the X17 and X10 =
flares
last week, has joined the parade by producing its first major solar =
flare: a
class X2.7 solar x-ray event at 01:29 UTC on 03 November (8:29 pm EST on =
02
November).

     This was preceded about eight hours earlier by an even more =
powerful
solar flare from neighboring Region 486. That event reached a class X8.3
x-ray intensity at 17:25 UTC on 02 November and blasted the Earth with =
an
additional dose of high-energy protons at 17:35 UTC (only 10 minutes =
after
x-rays reached their maximum intensity)!

     The X8.3 solar flare from Region 486 has been confirmed as a halo
coronal mass ejection (perhaps a borderline partial halo event). This =
means
that mass ejected from the region contains an Earthward-directed =
component.
That component is expected to impact the Earth on 03 or 04 November, but
with heaviest emphasis on the early UTC hours of 04 November. For North
American observers, this translates to the evening (probably late =
evening)
hours on MONDAY NIGHT, Eastern Standard Time.

     A middle latitude auroral activity WATCH has been issued for the 03 =
to
06 November time-frame with heaviest empahsis on 04 November. It is =
appended
below.

     Although this event has the potential to be perhaps as strong as =
the
Great Storm of 29 and 30 October, we do not believe it will. =
Nevertheless,
the chance for periods of significant auroral activity exists for 03 =
through
06 November (again, with emphasis on 04 November).

     This will probably be the last geoeffective disturbance the Earth =
will
observe from sunspot complex 486 before it rotates behind the western =
limb
of the Sun and out of range.

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                  WATCH ISSUED: 02:00 UTC, 03 NOVEMBER 2003

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

             ** THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY EXISTS **

VALID BEGINNING AT: 12:00 UTC ON 03 NOVEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 06 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE:
     APPROX. 07:00 UTC ON 04 NOVEMBER, +/- AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 - 05 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 03 - 06 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 70, 30, 15 (03 NOVEMBER  - 06 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO =
HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT =3D 12 TO 18 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT =3D 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO
NEBRASKA
   TO IOWA TO ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN INDIANA TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO =
VIRGINIA
   TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   FRANCE TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO CZECH REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO BELARUS TO
   CENTRAL RUSSIA.

   NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN) REGIONS =
OF
   AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     TWO major X-class solar flares within the last 24 hours have been
observed. The first, a class X8.37 x-ray flare occurred at 17:15 UTC on =
02
November and was associated with a full halo coronal mass ejection. The
second major X-class flare is in-progress at the time of this writing =
(peak
was at a class X2.72 x-ray level at 01:29 UTC on 03 November). This =
event is
assumed to be associated with a similar coronal mass ejection having an
Earthward-directed component.

     Activity is expected to intensify early in the UTC day of 04 =
November
(perhaps near 07:00 UTC give or take several hours). Note that there is =
a
discrepancy between Solar Terrestrial Dispatch's (STD) prediction and =
the
Space Environment Center (SEC). SEC is expecting an impact "near mid-day =
on
day one" which is near 12:00 UTC on 03 November. If SEC is correct, the
disturbance will arrive near dawn over North America TONIGHT and will
probably produce a significant disturbance at the Earth. If STD is =
correct,
the disturbance won't arrive until near midnight over North America on
MONDAY NIGHT and will be of lesser magnitude than the events of 29-30
October. In any event, there is a good chance for periods of minor to =
severe
auroral storm activity after the disturbance arrives.

     This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 06
November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. It may also be
upgraded to a warning after the disturbance impacts. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For =
real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

**  End of the AstroAlert Bulletin  **
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