[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/31/2003 2:47:25 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 311944
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2003

ITS A COOL LATE SPRING AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHERE WRAP 
AROUND CU/SC AND NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LM WERE HOLDING EARLY AFTERNOON 
TEMPS JUST ABOVE 60.  WEST OF THE RIVER THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS 
BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC...AS A RESULT THE CU WAS SCATTERING OUT 
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S.  CWA IS IN ZONE OF STRONG NNW MID LEVEL 
FLOW WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND S/W 
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS ACTIVE WX OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND 
OHIO VALLEY.  

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREA WAS JUST COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PAC NW 
THIS MORNING.  MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN THEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE 
SYSTEM BUT THERE SOLUTIONS DEPARTED AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH THE 
SHARP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  THE GFS/UKMET BRING A MORE POTENT 
WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE SUNDAY...DIVING IT SOUTHEAST THROUGH NE/KS/MO 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  ETA SHOWING A MUCH FLATTER SYSTEM WITH 
MINIMAL PCPN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION.  FOR 
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS VIGOROUS WAVE 
CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWA.  WITH MODEL CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT FROM 
THE UKMET WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION. IN THE NEAR TEMPS TONIGHT 
WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.  MOS NUMBERS 
ALL WITH IN A CATEGORY OF THE RECORD AT BRL /44 - 1972/. RECORDS FOR 
REST OF CWA ARE IN THE UPPER 30S.  TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD 
COVER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY MID/HI CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF DAKOTAS. 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AFTER CU 
DISSIPATES...THEN SOME HIGH CLOUD SPREADING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SHOULD BE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO ALLOW SERN 
SECTIONS TO APPROACH MID 40S OR CLOSE TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS.  NWRN 
CWA WILL BE CLOSER TO WARMER FWC VALUES.  CURRENT FCST HAS POPS IN 
WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING 
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AGAIN WILL USE THE GFS AND UP POPS TO 
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH WHERE GFS/UKMENT PAINT A DECENT PCPN FIELD.  
FURTHER NORTH WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS.  PCPN THREAT SHOULD END 
MONDAY EVENING.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH GFS SHOWING 
LITTLE IF ANY MID/LOW LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPS WERE CUT BACK MONDAY IN 
THE SOUTH IN ANTICIPATION OF CLOUDS AND PCPN...OTHERWISE NO 
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

EXTENDED...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON CARVING TROUGH OUT OVER THE 
REGION DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING 
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. WILL 
MAINTAIN PCPN CHANCES WED THROUGH FRIDAY.  HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF 
THUNDER TO WEDNESDAY ONLY WHEN GFS SUGGESTS THE BETTER FORCING AND 
THERMAL PARAMETERS.  HAVE ALSO BUMPED TEMPS UP ABOUT A CATEGORY WED 
THROUGH FRI.  


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$