[LeArc] FW: AstroAlert: Improving prospects for observing the "Northern Lights"
Jay Hainline
[email protected]
Thu, 29 May 2003 20:45:37 +0000
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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com
Supporting Imagery and Movies are available at:
http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html
29 May 2003
LOOK FOR THE LIGHTS TONIGHT
The middle latitude auroral activity watch has been upgraded to a
Warning as of 12:15 pm EDT (16:15 UTC) on 29 May. This means that the
possibility to observe the "Northern Lights" has improved recently. This
change in status occurred following the arrival of the first disturbance
(which also happens to be presumeably one of the weakest). The first =
coronal
mass ejection impacted the Earth around 8:24 am EDT (12:24 UTC) on 29 =
May.
It has been remarkably effective in producing strong enhancements in
geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. If the other disturbances follow =
a
similar pattern, many people may expect to see some significant =
"northern
lights" activity over the next two evenings.
The areas that may be able to spot activity include the central =
United
States, north to central Europe (see the geographic designations in the
warning that has been included below), most (if not all) of New Zealand =
and
much of the southern coastal regions of Australia.
Whether you are able to observe auroral activity from your region
depends on current space weather conditions (they can change rapidly) =
and
whether favorable conditions occur while you happen to be looking =
skyward.
Don't assume that because you can't see anything when you first look =
that
you won't ever be able to see anything. The truth is, auroral activity =
can
intensify so rapidly that at one moment you may see nothing while 15 =
minutes
later the sky may be blazing. Patience, persistence and finding a =
dark-sky
location are the most important factors when "hunting" for aurora. Find =
a
location where you can stretch out under the night sky with a clear,
comfortable and light-pollution-free view of the northern sky (or =
southern
sky if you live in the Southern Hemisphere). It is remarkable how the =
lights
from even a small town can veil auroral activity. Don't forget to pack a
warm blanket, maybe a thermos of your favorite drink, and some mosquito
repellent to help you enjoy the evening.
Good luck to everyone who attempts to find the lights tonight!
The middle latitude aurora warning is included below and contains =
some
revised estimates of the geographical visibility limits for observing
auroral activity over the next few evenings.
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
ISSUED: 16:15 UTC, 29 MAY 2003
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
*** POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS ***
For North Americans, begin watching TONIGHT.
VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 31 MAY
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28 - 31 MAY
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 30, 35, 20 (27 MAY - 30 MAY)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE - HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT =3D 24 - 48 HOURS
MINOR BELT =3D 48 - 72 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE - LOW
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY
GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN
COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
FRANCE TO SOUTHERN BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO
BELARUS
TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE =
PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A series of solar coronal mass ejections are expected to impact the
Earth over the next 72 hours. The first disturbance (and presumeably one =
of
the weakest) impacted the Earth near 12:24 UTC (8:24 am EDT) on 29 May =
and
has produced periods of minor to major auroral storm activity. Major to
severe geomagnetic and auroral storm activity is expected to accompany =
the
coronal mass ejections that impact the Earth over the next 24 to 48 =
hours.
This should become a good to very good opportunity for wide-spread =
middle
latitude sightings of auroral activity during the next 48 hours. =
Observers
are encouraged to watch the night-skies from after sunset until dawn for
possible activity.
This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 31 =
May.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information,
visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of
current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
NOTICE: THE NEXT HOME-STUDY INTERNET SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING =
COURSE
will commence on 16 June 2003. This course is suitable for anyone to
take (there are no prerequisites). It teaches you how to analyse =
solar
activity and predict space weather impacts of this activity on the =
Earth
and Earth-based technology systems (including predicting the =
occurrence
of auroral activity). It includes over 600 pages of printable =
curriculum
and may also optionally include several powerful software packages
developed for space weather studies and research.
Details are available at: http://www.spacew.com/www/course.html
The last offering of this course was October 2002. We do not know =
when
the next class may be offered. We encourage all who are interested =
to
consider enrolling soon.
CURRENT REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF ACTIVITY MAY BE FOUND AT:
http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
CURRENT REAL-TIME CONDITIONS (PLOTS) ARE AVAILABLE AT:
http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
CURRENT GALLERY OF ASTRONOMICAL AND AURORA IMAGES:
http://www.spacew.com/gallery
DISCUSSIONS OF ACTIVITY
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
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