[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/24/2003 1:51:27 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 241849
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
145 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

.OVERVIEW...ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DIVING
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  RADAR AND SATELLITE SUPPORT MAIN
PRECIPITATION WEST OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF I-380 CORRIDOR.  SURFACE ANALYSIS
IN LINE WITH UPPER AIR SHOWING AREA TO STAY ON COOL SIDE OF SFC HIGH AND
THUS LIMITED CHANCE POPS.  DISTANCE TIME PROJECTIONS SUPPORT CLEARING
FROM NORTH BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HOLDING MAINLY IN
UPPER 60S AS OF 18Z WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS OF 35 TO 40.

...TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE AS FORECAST ISSUE
THROUGH DAY 4...THEN INCREASING CHANCE OF STORMS LATE WEEK...

.DIAGNOSIS...DAYS (1-3)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREA TO STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.  WILL USE NOWCAST TOOLS
FOR POPS TONIGHT BUT RIGHT NOW SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM
GOING FORECASTS...OR CHANCE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TO END AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.  MAY REINTRODUCE SOME EVENING
SPRINKLES AS FAR NE AS QUAD CITIES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CENTRAL
IOWA PRECIPITATION DISSIPATES.  DUE TO VERY LOW DEWPOINTS OF 30S ACROSS
AREA...WILL LEAN ON PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT FOR LOWS ~1 CATEGORY
BELOW GUIDANCE BLEND...EXCEPT NEAR FAR SOUTH WHERE CLEARING DELAYED. ALL
INDICATIONS WILL SEE MORE DAYTIME CUMULUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE
MORNING SUNSHINE.  WILL SEE LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARIES DEVELOP MID
AFTERNOON AND MIGRATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AS OFTEN IS CASE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SIMILAR TO LATE PM FRIDAY EVENT. WILL WATCH FOR
INDICATIONS ON STRENGTH OF TODAY/S BOUNDARY BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE TOO
LITTLE MOISTURE RIGHT NOW TO SUPPORT POPS...NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOCUS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF
MISSISSIPPI.  HIGHS WILL LEAN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE BLEND DUE
TO DRY AIR.  TONIGHT MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE BUT WITH CLOUDS
AND A TAD MORE WIND WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND BRIEF LATER SHIFTS.

.EXTENDED (WED-SAT)...LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT LATE SPRING PATTERN
SETTING UP LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOR MCS EVENT(S) AHEAD OF OR WITH NEXT COLD FRONT.
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY MOISTURE AND FORCING SUGGEST BOWING SEGMENTS...
POSSIBLY MCC/DERECHO DEPENDING ON TIMING ISSUES FRI/SAT. HAVE BETTER
HANDLE BY MONDAY...EITHER WAY CHANCE POPS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS MODERATE STRENGTH
SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW OR WNW UPPER FLOW.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

NICHOLS