[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/22/2003 4:01:37 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 220900
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
359 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM A QUEBEC HIGH.  AT 500MB A TROF IS
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORT WAVE
IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.  THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z.

THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WARMING UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE DAKOTA SHORT WAVE DEEPENING AS IT
HEADS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  THE WAVE THEN
CONTINUES FURTHER EAST WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AS A CLOSED
LOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE THRU TUESDAY...AND THEN
BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.  A TROF ROTATES AROUND THIS
LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT
WEEK.  ON FRIDAY...A LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST...BECOMING QUASI
STATIONARY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...IN THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY...
MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.  ON DAY 7/WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY SIGNATURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST...PERHAPS
TRIMMING BACK ON ALREADY LIMITED FORECAST CHANCES.  LITTLE CHANGE ON
TEMPERATURES.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA