[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/21/2003 3:23:27 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 210822
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
322 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE HIGH AT THE SURFACE
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.  AT 500MB ZONAL FLOW IS ZONAL FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE WEST COAST.  THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS A POTENTIAL CUT-
OFF LOW AT 500MB IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY TIME FRAME THAT
COULD BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THRU NEXT TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THRU
CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN KICKING EAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...AND THEN SOUTH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT 500H THE MRF...EUROPEAN...AND UK ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH A
CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU DAY 7. A SHARP UPPER
TROF WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

WILL KEEP CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST. MAY CUT PRECIP FOR MONDAY...
AS DON'T SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA