[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/20/2003 2:59:48 AM

Tue, 20 May 2003 02:59:48 -0500

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 200758
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1037MB HIGH CENTERED MOVING IN FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA. AT 500MB A SHARP SHORT WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO CENTRAL IOWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE TWO-FOLD.
FIRST IS LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST NORTH.  SECOND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW JUST OFF TO OUR EAST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIP.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING THE SURFACE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES...ALSO SUPPORTED BY
TRAJECTORIES FROM NORTH DAKOTA.  HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF WHAT
COULD OTHERWISE BE NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPS.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE AVN/MRF DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW AT
500MB JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP IT
SPINNING OVER INDIANA THRU MONDAY...WHICH COULD SPILL CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR AREA...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY EAST.  THE EUROPEAN
AND UK INDICATE TROFING A TOUCH EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SO NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR CLOUDS/PRECIP.  WITH THE NEW 00Z MRF AGREEING WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUN...WILL HAVE TO GIVE IT SOME CREDENCE.

WILL KEEP ON CURRENT TRACK...WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FROST NORTH
TONIGHT.  THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL...ALTHO WILL BE RE-EVALUATED TODAY.  WILL LEAVE IN PRECIP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR CUT-OFF LOW...AND WILL ADD
FRIDAY FOR SAME.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA