[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/19/2003 2:40:05 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 190738
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS SURFACE LOW IN THE TX
PANHANDLE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO.
AT 500MB A RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH A TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.  AFTER
THAT...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONT MOVING THRU DVN AROUND 22Z. VV'S ARE
STRONG NEAR 00Z...EARLIER WEST AND LATER EAST.  DITTO FOR 300MB
DIVERGENCE.  HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND
CAPES.  TEMPS COULD REACH 75 NORTH AND 80 SOUTH...WITH CAPES IN THE
AFTERNOON LESS THAN 1000 NORTH...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 2000 EXTREME
SOUTH.  LI'S WILL BE IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.  SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND FROM 850MB TO
500MB WILL BE VERY MARGINAL.  ALSO, WET BULB ZERO'S WILL BE NEAR
11,700 FT.  SO NOT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. TIMING OF CURRENT
CONVECTION FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...JUST
BEING THE COLD FRONT...WOULD BRING THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP INTO
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 17Z AND
19Z...AND THRU DVN BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.  TIMING COULD TURN OUT TO BE
A TOUCH LATER SINCE FRONT TIMES THRU DVN AROUND 22Z AND MAIN
CONVECTION IS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WILL END ACROSS MOST THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...WITH WINDS
PICKING UP AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING AT 15 TO 30 MPH THRU MOST OF
TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH COOL MORNING MIN'S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS...DROPPING TO NEAR 40 NORTH...AND THE MID 40S SOUTH.  THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIDWEEK FROST NORTH CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  AFTER THAT...
SUNDAY MAY SEE A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS MISSOURI.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY MAY INCH UP A
BIT BEYOND WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.  CLOUDY COVER WILL BE A FACTOR...
BUT WILL SEE SOME SUN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.
MAY LOWER MIN'S MIDWEEK A TOUCH.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA