[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/18/2003 1:53:59 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 180652
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
152 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS SURFACE LOW IN WEST TN...
CONTINUING TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA...AND A SECOND LOW IN WESTERN
SD.  AT 500MB...A RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH A TROF WEST.
A CLOSED LOW SITS OVER THE TN SURFACE LOW.  AT THE JET LEVEL...A
120KT JET IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.  LOCALLY...SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON THE EASTERLY FLOW AT 850MB.  AT THE SURFACE...A
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUES.  THE MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL AT 00Z.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS A COLD
FRONT IN THE MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.  OTHERWISE...A QUIET
FORECAST WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON PUTTING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH DVN
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z MONDAY EVENING.  CAPES INCREASE MIDDAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  VV'S AND 300MB DIVERGENCE
ARE STRONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...STARTING
AS EARLY AS 21Z WEST...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z EAST.  SPLIT FLOW...
WITH ONE LOW THRU TX AND THE SECOND THRU CANADA COULD ROB SOME OF
THE PRECIP WITH A NORTH-SOUTH SPLIT.  LLJ FIELDS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
POSSIBILITY...INDICATING MAYBE BEST NOT TO HIT TOO HEAVY ON POPS
AT THIS TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...
AND STAYS IN CONTROL THRU FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST...INTRODUCING PRECIP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY.  ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO EXTEND CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP WITH ABOVE GUIDANCE
TEMPS FOR MONDAY...SINCE MOS IS RUNNING TOO COOL ON MAX'S.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA