[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/17/2003 4:22:58 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 170913
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
413 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

WX TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS OBVIOUSLY
INITIALIZED POORLY TONIGHT BECAUSE NONE OF THEM KNOW THERE ARE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWFA. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OFF DURING THE DAY AS
LOWER MISSISSIPPI SYSTEM MOVES EAST. OTHER PROBLEMS ARE FOG AND
DIURNAL CU. FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE LOWER WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IN THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH OF KDBQ.
EXPECT FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO CWFA IN PRE-DAWN HOURS.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN STEEP
TODAY AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DIURNAL CU DEVELOP.

TEMP WISE...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE PLUS A FEW TODAY AND SUNDAY.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW GUIDANCE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
DIVE TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATER NEXT WEEK. TSRA A GOOD BET
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. IF ECMWF H85 TEMPS VERIFY WED MORNING POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPS DROPPING INTO UPPER 30S FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WE SHALL
SEE.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF