[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/16/2003 3:56:56 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 160854
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
354 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

WX TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.  ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER CWFA TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE STEEP SO DIURNAL SC SHOULD START FIRING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK IMPULSE MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
FIRE OFF SOME ISOLATED SHRA OR SPRINKLES. FIGURE OVERALL COVERAGE
TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO DIDN/T MENTION IN ZONES.

DIURNAL SC TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN STEEP. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF DIURNAL SC SHOULD BECOME LESS
WITH EACH PASSING DAY AS CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT BECOMES MINIMAL.

TEMPS TO SLOWLY CLIMB WITH EACH PASSING DAY BUT TENDED TO SPLIT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FWC/MAV WHILE FAVORING COOLER MAV DUE TO EAST AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF