[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/14/2003 3:29:59 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 142027
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

STACKED SYSTEM SPINNING OVER ERN SD EARLY THIS MORNING IS DROPPING 
SOUTHEAST.  COMBINATION OF COOL POOL ENHANCING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE  GENERATING SCATTERED NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE 
TSRA.  MAINLY LARGE HAIL REPORTS SO FAR.  NEXT LINE JUST WEST OF CWA 
MAY HAVE SOME WIND CONCERNS WITH LAPS CAPES UP TO 1400 J/KG TO FEED 
ON.  EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO END MID TO LATE EVENING AS UPPER LOW 
MOVES INTO SERN IA.  

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ROTATING UPPER LOW INTO THE 
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  INVERTED TROF HANGS UP OVER IA THURSDAY.  
WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL RH NEAR TROF...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SOME -RA
AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z.  STALLED SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH 
PRESSUE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EAST TO 
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SETUP OVER CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. 
LOW LEVELS NEVER DRY OUT TO ANY EXTENT. SO WITH SOME CLOUDS AND COOL 
NE FLOW...STILL AT OR BELOW COOLER MOS NUMBERS. MODELS BRING 
SOUTHERN STREAM S/W OUT OF THE SW U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOVES INTO 
NRN OK BY 00Z SAT.  GFS OMEGA SUGGEST THAT PCPN MAY MAKE IT AS FAR N 
AS SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWVER FORCING THAT FAR N IS WEAK 
AND PCPN WILL BE FIGHTING NORTHEAST FLOW...SO WILL LEAVE FCST DRY.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.  CWA IN BETWEEN STREAMS EARLY IN THE 
PERIOD.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY MOVING SRN STREAM SYSTEM 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NRN AR KEEPING NORTHERN EDGE OF PCPN JUST TO OUR 
SOUTH.   FAIRLY POTENT NRN STREAM TROUGH STILL PROGGED THROUGH 
REGION BY MID WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS 
SYSTEM.  UKMET CLOSES AN H5 LOW OFF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY 
MONDAY AND MOVES IT SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OPEN WAVE DRIVING A COLD 
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE CURRENT MENTION OF TSRA 
TUESDAY.  WILL GO DRY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOKS WINDY WITH TIGHT 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER REGION AHEAD OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$
DLF