[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 5/14/2003 4:40:04 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 140933
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
433 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

BAD MOISTURE DATA FROM 00Z DVN SOUNDING AFFECTING SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS. IN NEAR TERM RUC HAS BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP AND OVERALL FORCING. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER CWFA SHOULD MOVE
OFF AS FORCING FROM VORT MAX MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING. COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TSRA TO
DEVELOP. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHT SUGGEST HAIL
THREAT FROM TSRA THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP SHRA GOING. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO KEEP LOW SC ACROSS CWFA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP ON THIS SYSTEM WOULD
BE IN THE SOUTH THIRD IF IT OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY BE PRESENT IN LOW LEVELS TO PRECLUDE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS.

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE BUSTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH EASTERLY FLOW.
BELIEVE EASTERLY FLOW TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF CWFA TODAY AND MOST OF CWFA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

SF